Future of Taiwan: Preparing for War Without Seeking War

U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, on August 2, 2022, drew criticism from many parties, especially China. China considers this a war drum; China responds and in the form of military exercises around the jurisdiction of Taiwan. From the CSIS China Power, the Chinese military has conducted military exercises in 6 different locations.

China's pressure does not stop at military exercises around the territory of Taiwan, China even systematically carries out an economic embargo by banning imports of 100 commodities from Taiwan to carry out cyber-attacks. China wants to show the US and Taiwan that the price of Pelosi's visit is not cheap.

The US certainly will not remain silent on China's maneuvers over Taiwan, a few days before Pelosi landed in Taiwan the US had alerted the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, USS Tripoli landing craft, and several warships in the Asia Pacific region to provide escort.

Nancy Pelosi is the first US official to officially set foot in Taiwan in the period since the passage of the "Taiwan Relations Act" (TRA) in 1979. So far, the US government has tried to respect the "One China Policy" and TRA in international norms. While US-Taiwan relations showed a significant improvement in the defense and economic sectors under Trump, the US never sent any official delegation or official to Taiwan.

Seeing the past to guess the future

If you look in the mirror in the theory of "The Thucydides Trap" (Thucydides Trap) which was coined by Professor Graham Allison of Harvard. Allison gives an illustration that the situation that occurs between China and the US today is a history that is repeated as at the time of the rivalry of Athens and Sparta in 431 BC. Athens' growing power was considered a threat to Sparta and war was inevitable.

In this case, China does not want the status quo over Taiwan to be replaced, China is aware that Taiwan's closeness to the US since the Trump period has made Taiwan's position stronger. Taiwan is supported by adequate weapons to defend itself, coupled with commitments from the US and allies.

The maneuver of the three actors

It should be underlined that during Tsai Ing-Wen as President of Taiwan since 2013, Taiwan changed the direction of its foreign policy towards China. The previous president, Ma Ying-Jeou, directed close relations with China, this was carried out by improving economic relations until a very historic bilateral meeting in 2015. From the beginning since the formation of the "Democratic Progressive Party” (DPP), the party that oversees the Tsai, Tsai firmly rejected reunification with China, and stated that she wanted an independent Taiwan.

Tsai received significant support from the US in Trump's leadership, Trump perfectly read the maneuvers that Tsai did. Trump backed Taiwan with arms sales worth 18.27 billion dollars divided into 21 purchases in the 2017-2020 period.

China certainly does not remain silent, China periodically and systematically exerts pressure through military exercises in Taiwan's "Air Defense Identification Zone" (ADIZ). In early 2022, China even sent 39 aircraft consisting of 34 fighters, 1 bomber, and 4 intelligence aircraft. China wants to show that Taiwan's position is only a province that wants to secede, and this cannot be tolerated and justified.

China's increasingly aggressive attitude towards Taiwan did not make Tsai flinch, Tsai even openly wrote in Foreign Policy entitled "Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy A Force for Good in the Changing International Order", stating that Taiwan is currently not an independent country because Since the beginning Taiwan has been independent under the name "The Republic of China" (ROC) or Taiwan. Tsai then gave a message and warning that if Taiwan was successfully taken over by China, the consequences would be enormous for stability in the region and the world.

Foreign policy and national security studies China at Tel Aviv University explained very well how China's position in viewing foreign threats. China had entered a dark period called the "Age of Humiliation" (1839-1949), and China was forced to follow rules made by foreign parties. This is because China's military strength is so weak. This experience has led every Chinese leader not to repeat the same thing. This trauma played a major role in determining the direction of China's foreign policy, especially in the defense sector. Therefore, the reunification of China is a must.

The war machine that has been ignited

The increasingly heated situation between the three parties is well explained by Zack Cooper and Sheena Chestnut Greitens who are researchers with a focus on Asian Security studies, in an article published in the American Enterprise Institute: Defending Taiwan provides an interesting analysis of the scenario that will occur between the three countries. In the first scenario, China will attack Taiwan directly and at the same time face the US alliance. In the second scenario, China will be more careful not to attack the US alliance. Third, the attack will be carried out gradually, China will attack Taiwan but not directly hit the US alliance. Fourth, China will carry out an economic embargo and cyber-attacks on Taiwan and annex small islands around it.

Although tensions between China and the US are increasing, Amanda Hsiao, a senior analyst for China at Crisis Group, stated that the two countries did not want to lead the situation to war, and it should be understood that the response given by China was a natural one.

But Xi certainly doesn't want to lose face on the international stage and at home, some experts do predict that things will improve soon. However, Jude Blanchette, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) sees otherwise, "He really can't be considered weak. That's why there is significant concern about where this could go."

Taiwan is aware that its position is desperate, China will remain in a position to carry out reunification sooner or later. This is in line with Xi's "China Dream" vision and personal ambitions. Taiwan will eventually have to adjust to the policies taken by the US and be pragmatic about China.

This is a big question mark, whether the situation will stabilize shortly or vice versa. It is highly hoped that this escalation will only reach the stage of military training, although all possibilities will still occur considering this is a battle between two hegemonic powers.

Pic Courstey-Rovin Ferrer at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those fo the author and do not represet views of CESCUBE.)