Has India activated its ‘Double Fish Hook’ strategy in the Indian Ocean?
The Fish hook strategy was a US propelled strategy highlighted by Taiwan military intelligence official Liao Wen-chung. He described it as a “Fish Hook Undersea Defence Line”. The purpose of this defence line was the US developing underwater sensors, fixed acoustic surveillance arrays, and intricate network of nodes to keep surveillance on Chinese and even North Korean submarines in the Pacific Ocean region. The primary aim was to develop electronic technologies for anti-submarine warfare. One of the critical end point of this fish hook strategy was Andaman and Nicobar islands.
During the late 1980s there were apprehensions that Russia might use Andaman and Nicobar islands as a launching pad for its ambitions in the Indian Ocean region. This has perturbed the countries such as Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand which were seen as closest allies of the US in Southeast Asia. In the due course of time the concept of the ‘’String of Pearls’ also came into being. Under this concept it was propagated that China is building ports and related infrastructure in the South Asian region in countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Over a period of time with Chinese investment in port development at Gwadar(Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Chittagong(Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu(Myanmar), buttress the fact that a string of pearls might be a possibility.
India's strategy to counter this string of pearls was not highlighted and it was stated that India is complacent with regard to countering Chinese strategy in the Indian Ocean region. However, this has changed with India taking due cognisance of the fact that in order to counter China, it will have to strengthen its Andaman and Nicobar Islands. For that objective in mind, the new Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Bipin Rawat commissioned these islands as the one of the theatre command centres. With D K Joshi, the former Chief of Navy staff as the Lt Governor of these islands the development of infrastructure would be in sync with the maritime objectives of the Indian navy as well as developing cooperation among three wings of armed forces.
For Andaman and Nicobar to be elevated as an effective countermeasure against Chinese incursions in Indian Ocean region, there is a need for cooperation among the Quad countries so that Chinese activities in this region can be curbed. Chinese opening up of the base in Djibouti as well as developing military capacities in Gwadar for dual use purposes, showcases China's desperation to secure its energy supply lines. These islands were also referred in one of the RAND studies for operationalising US drone operations. India has also taken up the initiative for upgrading the infrastructure in few of the islands such as building new jetties, extending the airstrips in two air ports, building hangers for Sukhoi aircrafts and building two new airports in Northern region of these islands.
China has reclaimed and developed Feydhoo Finolhu Island, one of the Maldivian islands nearly 600 kilometres from Indian coastline as part of its maritime civilian infrastructure development in the Indian Ocean. Chinese reclamation activities in South China Sea have opened multiple avenues of island reclamation for those countries which are threatened by the climate change and sea level rise. Maldives has always worried about the sea level rise because many of its low lying islands which are tourist destinations would be submerged in the next three decades. India, on its part, has been working with its partners to develop its own version of the ‘’fish hook strategy’ which will encompass Andaman and Nicobar island chain, Sabang port in Indonesia and Coco(Keeling) Islands in Australia in eastern region. The MoU for development of Sabang and the Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) with Australia are part of this larger strategy. While connecting these ports and military bases, the last landing point would be Diego Garcia controlled by the US.
As a mirror image of this strategy India has gained rights for berthing and logistics support at Duqm port in Oman and has been working on establishing foothold in Djibouti. It has existing infrastructure in Mauritius and Seychelles while at the same time it has signed a logistics support agreement with France (signed during the visit of French President Macron in 2018) to provide reciprocal supplies, logistical support, and services and has started fortnightly sorties with maritime surveillance aircrafts. India has stationed a naval aircraft at France’s Reunion island. India has been working with Oman and developing its Duqm port for logistics purposes. An agreement in this regard has already been signed in 2018. Indian navy has secured access facilities at Duqm port. India has engaged Seychelles (Assumption island), Mauritius (Agalega Island) and Madagascar along with logistic support agreement with France and utilising its assets in the western Indian Ocean region. In case all of these are marked on the map then it will mirror the earlier fish hook, with end point at Diego Garcia.
The need for developing this network has been felt by the military establishment meant so that any Chinese venture closer to Indian coast can be met with interruption as well as interjection of rogue ships in case of an emergency. This double hook strategy would work for strategic operations among the Quad members for countering piracy or undertaking disaster relief missions. Further, it will help in undertaking comprehensive sweeping operations for survivors in case any disaster such as the MH-370.
This double fish hook strategy would have three nodes – the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Diego Garcia and Djibouti base. In a way this would create an effective triangle which could be operationalised for sea dominance and denial operations. The maritime surveillance aircrafts such as P-3C Orion or P-8 Poseidon would help in long range missions. India and France has undertaken these kinds of missions in the past. Also with logistics support agreement with Australia on a quid pro quo basis, both India and Australia can undertake long term and long range missions.In this network, the US would play a critical role and India is well aware of the fact that operationalisation of this fish hook would complement the US fish hook strategy existent in the Pacific region.
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(The views expressed are personal)