Is China Making its own Quad grouping ? – A Critical Study
Creating small groups of allied to reap benefits, is not a new phenomenon in the geopolitical arena. Indo-Pacific has emerged as the engine of future global development and the race to dominate the region is difficult. The Quad consisting of US, India, Australia and Japan – is one of the strongest alliances present in the region. Given that all the four democracies view China as a threat, their alliance has been getting stronger, especially with the onset of the pandemic which originated in China and spread across the world. But at the same time, China is not a power to back down and has been making advances and friendships of its own to counter the Quad’s rise.
The story of China’s rise in the international geopolitical arena is inspiring for many small nations of the East but the contemporary times pose, challenge to all the advances it has made in the past two decades. The authoritarian regime of China has not shied away from showing the other states its national interests and in many cases has gone full throttle to achieve its goals. While go-getting attitude has not been received well by most of the nations, China has used all the possible tactics to achieve the dominance in the world politics which has led to the rise in the anti-China sentiment in the past decade. The anti-China sentiment is at an all time high due to Covid-10 pandemic which has wreaked havoc across the world. But this has not stopped China from going ahead with its plan of political domination.
In a time when Biden is calling for an alliance of democracies, China is trying with all its might to forge its own alliances and the top members in its lists are – Russia, Iran and Pakistan. All these states have in one way or the other been rebuked by United States of America and have faced consequences due to that. China hopes to not only position itself as a contender to the world order which has been created and shaped by US but also has gone on record said that US’s role as an international bully does not sit well with the ethos of the Chinese governance.
In March, during the time when US-China talks were scheduled in Alaska, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi met and signed a declaration which pledged to reject the politicisation of human rights and interference of the other counties in the internal affairs of the countries. This united front was clearly aimed at US and its western allies and projected a strong partnership between Russia and China. This show of solidarity comes after both US and EU imposed sanctions on China over the human rights abuses of Uighurs and on Russia over the violence in eastern Ukraine. Both the countries have had strategic partnerships since 1997 but in the last decade both the countries have become closer due to their similarities in foreign policy outlook, economic and strategic relationship. Surely the relationship has deepened between both the countries because of the excellent personal relationship between Putin and Jinping, both the countries are also trying to cooperate with each other to unsettle America and its western allies.
Russia and China cooperation is not just limited to bilateral relationship. Both the countries have been very welcoming of the new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi has plans to strengthen the security cooperation and religious ties with the Islamic country. His policy also aims to look at East to strengthen the ties given Iran's history with the West. Russia and China hence, seem very lucrative partners. China in April signed a landmark 25-year Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Iran, renewing their commitment Comprehensive Strategic Partnership which was established in 2016. One of the areas where development was forecasted was the Nuclear Deal. The renewal of the agreement gives Iran a major push from China where it can urge US to unconditionally return to the Join Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as soon as possible and revoke the unilateral sanctions against Iran. This move would be highly important for Iran as Trump had pulled from the Iranian Nuclear deal earlier. At the same time, China has institutional links with Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and has helped the Islamic member countries during the pandemic. Iran being a member of OIC with Russia being a observer state, the Russia-China-Iran nexus can strengthen exchanges and coordination between the three countries.
At the same time, China has also made sure to devote attention its 'friendship' with Pakistan. China and Pakistan's engagement have diversified over the year and in the past decades, they have increased in various domains. Student exchanges and cultural exchanges have increased between both the countries but the economic exchanges have taken a forefront. Several Pakistani firms have partnered with Chinese SEO's to invest in Pakistani power sector. Several of CPEC's energy projects involve active negotiates between firms of both the countries. China and Pakistan media toes have also increased with Chinese media companies investing and funding many media houses in Pakistan.
In March, Iran has aprorposed a regional allaince of China, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. While such a alliances has not been formalised in the region, one cannot say that that it will not happen in future. The China-Iran bilateral agreement and the China-Russia comprehensive partnership creates conditions for the triangular partnership among the three countries. While China's economic cooperation with Russia and Pakistan has increased, its support to Iran's foreign policy and nuclear deal has created a nice grouping for China. In the international realm, everyone knows that China does not form friendships, what it does is - make alliances. And that's what China has done. While there are not any high tradepffs for China in formulating the relationship with these three countries, the escalating differences with Washington might push China into the deepening its cooperation with these states.
The rivalry between China and United States of America is quickly coming to bear resemble Cold War. Under such conditions, one cannot refute that China is trying to garner international support in form of alliances for itself. Famously called as 'alliances of autocracies' against USA's 'Alliances of Democracies', China is trying to form its own grouping in various ways. China, Iran, Russia and Pakistan have started one of the fiercest military drills in the world last September. China is trying to form a trans-Himalayan Quad of its own by also bring in Nepal, Afghanistan along with Pakistan. It is also trying to increase its clout among the Middles Eastern States and has started its work with Iran's Strategic Cooperation Agreement.
Such a situation can be alarming for state like India which is increasingly getting closer to United States of America. New Delhi has long feared China's increasing regional dominance and its String of Pearls network. While it has tried to counter it with its own foreign policy decisions and multilateral alliances, we can conclude that India and China are not on the same page currently. China is now fighting in the big leagues by leading its own side, while India would just be another fighter state beside USA who would lead another quad.
The international order has always been dynamic, it is currently going through major geopolitical changes as all the states are best trying to deal with the on-going pandemic. There may be flaws in how China is making its new alliances but there is no doubt that it is making an alliance with Russia, Pakistan and Iran being in the forefront. Now one can wait and see how this new era Cold War might pan out, but there is no doubt that things might get worse of some states and India might be just one of them!
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
