Libya and Challenges in holding elections
Peace, stability, and normalcy are a few of the jargon whose essence lies beyond the Libyan's purlieu. After the fall of Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi, popularly known as Colonel Gaddafi, Libya has been in a state of constant tumult. The expectation to democratise Libya after the regime change has not produced the expected results. Libyans have not been able to hold an election to set up a legitimate government. The absence of a central authority has hampered the progress of institutionalisation.
Libya has historically lacked the institutional setup. In the Pre-Gaddafi period, Libyans had generally organised themselves in a tribal framework across the three regions, namely- Tripolitania, Fezzan & Cyrenaica. As Gaddafi rose to power, instead of institutionalising Libya, he started an experiment of his own called Jamahiriya meaning, a state of the masses. The essence of Jamahiriya was essentially a democratic layout. However, it was from being a democracy. So, one can easily conclude that the challenges to holding an election in current-day Libya have their root in history, i.e. absence of building cohesion & institutions.
Visiting the Recent Past of Electoral Path
Before one starts analysing the challenges of holding elections in Libya, it would be prudent to visit the transitional electoral path of Libyan over the past decade. After the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, elections were held in July 2012 to start the democratic journey. The result of the election was the General National Congress (GNC). However, the new government failed to bring about stability in the country. The government could not reconcile the internal factionalism & eventually had no control over different militia groups. At the end of 2013, the GNC extended its tenure from February 2014 to December 2014. When with hue and cry, the GNC back-pedaled & acceded to hold elections in 2014. However, the election could take place, Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army, launched Operation Dignity to capture Tripoli. In June 2014, with Tripoli under Haftar, elections were held. Owing to the violence, the participation of the people was minuscule. As a result, the secular oriented group associated with Haftar defeated the Islamist faction. To save the defeated GNC, the Islamist militias and Misratan militias launched Operation Libya Dawn. The newly elected House of Representatives (HoR) had to take refugees in the city of Tobruk. However, the Supreme Court declared HoR to be unlawful. In this midst of chaos, the UN clinched a political deal & the outcome was the Government of National Accord(GNA). The GNA came into power in Tripoli in April 2016. Later, elections were scheduled for December 2018, which could not take place due to several factors. Multiple factors in tandem obstructed the facilitation of the electoral process in Libya. Currently, the newly constituted Government of National Unity(GNU), as an alternative to GNA, is responsible for conducting the elections in December 2021.
Presence Of Foreign Fighters & Security Challenges
Democratic germination in a fragmented country such as Libya is the process of careful calibration. For starters, peace is the most indispensable yardstick to instil confidence among the population. The presence of numerous actors, foreign as well as domestic, have muddled the security situation. Any government in Tripoli depends on different groups of militias for their survival. Therefore their behaviour during the election is influenced by their electoral prospects. They generally restore to violence if they are on a backfoot. The foreign support to different militias has emboldened their capability to carry out violent actions. The example of the attack on HNCE headquarters in Tripoli would give anyone an overview of challenges to the electoral process.
Some notable militia groups are the Libyan National Army, Misratan militias, Tripoli militias, Zintani militias, the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamist factions. Apart from the local militias, the presence of foreign fighters has also complicated the security environment. The existence of foreign fighters has become very schismatic & eventually food for geopolitical rivalries. According to UN statistics, there are approximately 20,000 foreign combatants from Syria, Russia, Sudan, and Chad. However, some believe the number is well beyond 20000. The Libyan have called for the withdrawal of foreign fighters as their stay violates the Libyan sovereignty.
Legal & Technical Challenges
One of the conspicuous challenges in conducting elections in Libya is the lack of legal framework and associated technical obstacles. Libya does not have a constitution that would clearly define the roles & responsibilities of different office bearers. The elections held in 2012 & 2014 were premised upon the 2011 Constitutional Declarations. However, the interim constitution had its shortcomings. The Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA), constituted in 2014, had the responsibility of preparing the Constitution for Libya. Finally, after the approval of the draft constitution on July 29, 2017, it was sent for HoR's approval. HoR has not yet approved the draft. The draft would also require passing the test of a public referendum. Several provisions of the draft, like the lack of constraining clauses for the President's power, the clause against the amendment of the constitution (5 years), have been at the eyes of disputes. The constitution apart, the Libyans have also not agreed upon the rules & laws for the conduct of the election procedure. Apart from the legal constraints, the High National Election Commission (HNEC) has to overcome technical hurdles such as registering voters, issuing voter cards, securing polling places, training workforce & other preparatory challenges.
Internal Contradictions
Internal contractions & narrow interests of different actors in the Libyan polity has been a discouraging factor in carrying out free and fair elections. The crisis over the provision of restricting the participation of people with dual citizenship is just one example. Haftar sees this provision as exclusively targeting. A personality like Haftar, who happens to be the leader of LNA & of the easter Libya, can play a constructive and obstructionist role. The competing factions fight for control over Libyan oil fields, production facilities, sovereign wealth & different institutions. The quest for such sway carries the danger of violent eruptions on the Libyan streets. The use of parliament & legislation to outsmart the opponents has further increased the mistrust. The Secular-Islamist divide is another fuel to the fire. The regional divaricate is at the core of disagreements and mistrust.
Conclusion
The fall of the Gadaffi regime let loose the anarchy, which has wreaked havoc in Libya. A combination of factors has hindered the political reconciliation process. However, with the international community's help, the Libyans have managed to give a constructive direction to the political process. The ceasefire agreed upon in October 2020 has seen the light of the day so far. The first Berlin Conference held in January 2020 was instrumental in achieving the armistice. The Second Berlin Conference concluded on July 23 2021, did not come up with anything new. The fifty-five point statement emphasised on deliberations of the first conference. It reaffirmed their stand that all foreign fighters should leave the country. Despite the progress, the possibility of violence cannot be underestimated. The elections scheduled for December 2021 still have pertinent threats.
References
2. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/7/28/unspoken-challenges-could-derail-libyas-elections
3. https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/06/23/tough-challenge-german-leadership-libya-talks
4. https://agsiw.org/libyas-fragile-political-consensus-faces-daunting-challenges/
6. https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/in-fractured-libya-is-stability-finally-on-the-horizon-48196
7. http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/the-challenges-and-opportunities-in-libya-today/
8. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/05/libyas-uncertain-path-elections
9. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-to-hold-elections-in-libya/
11. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/15/un-chief-foreign-fighters-in-libya-are-violating-ceasefire
Pic Courtesy- Ahmed Almakhzanji at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
