New Dynamics in Russia-Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has marked its one-year anniversary since the outbreak of hostilities on February 24, 2022. The anniversary of the war has brought attention to the ongoing crisis, highlighting the continuous struggle between the two nations. Despite various ceasefire agreements, the conflict remains far from resolved, with daily reports of skirmishes and military activity in the region. The conflict has resulted in significant human and economic losses, causing significant suffering for the people of Ukraine and Russia.
In such a context, in this article, we aim to examine the new dynamics that have emerged in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past few months. We focus on two key dynamics. Firstly, the increased role of external actors and how their involvement has led to proxy warfare, militarization of the conflict, and failure of multilateral institutions to reach consensus. Secondly, we highlight how the conflict is utilizing hybrid warfare techniques, specifically disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks, to achieve their objectives.
Role of External Actors
Financial and Technical assistance to Ukraine: The US and EU are playing a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by providing military aid to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. In December 2022, during President Zelenskyy's visit to the White House, the US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a $1.85 billion security aid package for Ukraine. This included authorization for a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance of up to $1 billion, as well as $850 million in assistance through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). According to BBC reports, from January 24, 2022, to January 15, 2023, the US was the largest contributor of military aid, totaling $46.6 billion, followed by the UK with $5.1 billion and the EU with $3.3 billion.
The US has provided advanced military equipment to Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Patriot and NASAM air defense systems, Stingers, Abrams tanks, and counter unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology. The EU has also extended substantial assistance to Ukraine, including a support package of up to €18 billion for 2023 and technical support for Ukraine's military and energy sectors. Moreover, the UK has provided Ukraine with 14 Challenger 2 tanks, while Germany has given 14 Leopard 2 tanks, which are considered easier to maintain and more fuel-efficient than most other Western tanks. Spain has also sent six of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Technological assistance to Russia: While western nations have provided various kinds of support to Ukraine, Iran has reportedly provided support to Russia. The Guardian has reported that Iran has smuggled new types of advanced long-range armed drones to Russia for use in the war on Ukraine. In November 2022, Russian officers and technicians visited Tehran and subsequently, 18 drones were delivered to Vladimir Putin's navy. The Russian delegation selected six Mohajer-6 drones, which have a range of around 200km and carry two missiles under each wing, along with 12 Shahed 191 and 129 drones. These higher-flying drones are designed to deliver bombs and return to base intact, unlike the Shahed 131 and 136 drones, which have been heavily used by Russia in kamikaze raids against Ukrainian targets.
Imposing sanctions: The Western nations have imposed numerous sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy and curb its expansionist ambitions. The EU's sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans on Russian individuals and entities, as well as trade and investment restrictions. In 2022, the EU expanded its sanctions to include individuals and entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Similarly, the US has imposed sanctions on Russia, including asset freezes and travel bans on Russian officials and entities, as well as trade and investment restrictions. In 2022, the US imposed sanctions on 24 Russian individuals and entities involved in the conflict in Ukraine.
How their involvement has shaped the conflict?
The involvement of external actors has played a significant role in escalating the Russia-Ukraine war beyond a simple bilateral issue. These actors have strategic interests in the region and have provided different forms of support to the parties involved in the conflict. This support includes military, economic, and diplomatic assistance, which has added to the complexity and longevity of the conflict.
Further, their involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only escalated tensions but also led to a high level of military innovation by both sides. The support provided by external actors, including military technology and expertise, has enabled the parties involved to develop new technologies and tactics to gain an advantage.
In addition, their involvement has also led to the blame game among them. For instance, China has blamed the US for escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, Western nations have targeted countries like Iran, because of their technological support to Russia. This blame game has created a volatile situation, with each side trying to defend its position and interest.
The involvement of external actors has also made it challenging to evolve a consensus on the conflict, as they have taken sides and put their weight behind the parties they support. The United States and European Union have provided military, economic, and diplomatic assistance to Ukraine, while Russia has provided similar support to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. This has led to a situation where multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations and the G20, have struggled to bring the parties to the negotiating table and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Hybrid Warfare
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also seen the emergence of a new dynamic in the form of hybrid warfare, which involves the use of both conventional military tactics and non-traditional methods like cyberattacks. Cyberattacks have been a particularly notable aspect of this hybrid warfare, with Russia targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure since 2014.
These cyberattacks have impacted various sectors of Ukrainian society, including energy, media, finance, and public services. They have been used to disrupt essential services, compromise sensitive data, and create chaos and confusion among the population. In some instances, cyberattacks have been combined with conventional military tactics like missile strikes, underscoring the changing nature of modern warfare.
In the past year, Ukraine has reported a significant increase in cyberattacks, some of which have been deployed alongside missile strikes. For instance, in November 2022, Russia launched a series of cyberattacks and missile strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities, leading to power outages during harsh weather conditions.
The use of cyberattacks as a tool of hybrid warfare is not only to disrupt services, but also as a propaganda tool. Russia has been accused of coordinating cyberattacks with disinformation campaigns aimed at shifting the blame for the consequences of power outages and other disruptions caused by the attacks onto Ukraine. This highlights the potential for cyberattacks to be used as part of a broader information warfare strategy.
Ukraine has received substantial support from the West, including a £6.35m aid package from the UK, in its efforts to counter Russian and pro-Russian hacking. In addition to this aid, governments and organizations around the world have implemented initiatives to protect critical infrastructure. For example, the EU's Cyber Rapid Response Teams have been created to help respond to cyber threats. Independent hackers have also launched counter-attacks against Russian state, security, banking, and media systems.
In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become increasingly complex and multifaceted due to the involvement of external actors and the utilization of hybrid warfare tactics. The conflict is not simply a bilateral issue between two nations, but has become a proxy war with various actors pursuing their strategic interests. The militarization of the conflict, along with the failure of multilateral institutions to resolve the issue, has led to an increased risk of escalation and instability in the region. Furthermore, the use of disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks has added a new dimension to the conflict, making it even more challenging to resolve. As the conflict continues, it is imperative for all parties involved to prioritize diplomacy and dialogue to find a peaceful and sustainable resolution.
Pic Courtsey-Eugene Z at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
