Return of Military Rule in Myanmar
On 1st February 2021, the military coup in Myanmar shook the world as the military generals took back power ending the short-lived democratic experiment which began in 2011 and culminated with National League for Democracy coming to power in 2015. It involved electoral reforms, release of political prisoners, enhancement of labour and media freedom and most importantly allowing National League for Democracy to participate in the election. There have been more than 60 deaths and thousands injured during the clashes between democracy supporters and army in the country. Many Chinese factories have been burnt because protestors believe China’s role in fomenting trouble and supporting the military rule in Myanmar.
History of political rule:
Myanmar started out as a parliamentary democracy like its Indian counterpart but in 1962, a coup led to the rule of General U Ne Win for 26 straight years. The general instituted a new constitution in 1974 which led to the egregious economic situation and ultimately leading to massive student protests. In august 1988, the military cracked down on the protesters which resulted in the death of three thousand, and thousands more were displaced.
The saffron revolution wherein massive anti-government protests took place due to hikes in fuel prices, which led the military junta to push forward a new constitution meant to give most of the powers to civilian leaders. In 2011, a civilian parliament was established to allow for transfer of power from the military junta to elected politicians. Many reforms were to be made as part of the exercise to turn toward a democracy for instance amnesty was granted to political prisoners, media censorship was relaxed, and economic reforms included encouraging foreign investment.
As a result of the experiment, first nationwide, multiparty elections were held in 2015 which are the freest and fairest elections conducted since independence. Aung Sun Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won the election in a landslide, it secured majority in upper as well as lower house of parliament paving the way for a truly democratic government in Myanmar for the first time.
What led the military to impose national emergency?
Tensions began to rise when the military refused to accept the result of the November 2020 elections, in which the NLD won 396 seats, way above the required 322 needed to form the majority. The military affiliated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) alleged that there was widespread voter fraud, for instance they claimed to have discovered 8.6 million irregularities, but the irony is that they did not have any solid evidence to justify their claims and pressurised the election commission to investigate the matter.
On 28 January 2021, the election commission rejected the military’s claim of widespread voter fraud citing no proof of fraud or a rigged election. On 1st February 2021, the day when the new parliament was to be convened, the military seized power from the democratically elected government and imposed national emergency for a period of one year. In the wee hours of 1st February, the military’s TV station announced that power has been transferred to the commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing. The crackdown began when Aung San Suu Kyi along with several other state ministers were detained.
Under the chief’s guidance troops have been patrolling the streets constantly and have blocked the roads, a night-time curfew has been imposed to deter protestors, international as well as domestic TV channels sent off air, and last but not the least, internet and phone services disrupted. All these efforts were made to control the masses from protesting on a large scale.
The decision to conduct the coup on the same day when the new parliament was to be assembled, and its repeated assertion on the election being won by NLD fraudulently suggests that it did not want Aung Sun Suu Kyi’s party to form the government again. This suggests that the military is wary of losing the power it has enjoyed for 5 decades in spite of the fact that it still holds 25 percent of the seats in the parliament.
How did the world react to the coup?
United States said that the sanctions which were removed considering the progress made on the democratic front would be reviewed given the coup conducted on 1st February 2021. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the armed forces “to respect the rule of law and human rights, and release those unlawfully detained”, and last but not the least, for the parliament to be reassembled.
India’s response was of deep concern and New Delhi reiterated its support for Myanmar’s transition to democracy, while also acknowledging that the rule of law and the democratic process must be honoured. Lastly, the ministry of external affairs spokesperson said that they are monitoring the situation closely.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that they are cognizant of the situation in Myanmar and hoped that “all parties will properly handle their differences under the constitution and legal framework to maintain political and social stability”. China views the situation as a ‘major cabinet reshuffle’, and blocked United Nations Security Council’s attempt to condemn the actions taken by the military.
ASEAN member states seem to be divided over the response with regards to the overthrow of the democratic government in Myanmar, for instance Brunei called for ‘dialogue among parties, reconciliation and return to normalcy. Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia are visibly concerned about the takeover by the Tatmadaw. On the other hand, however, Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines saw the issue to be under Myanmar’s internal matter. Hence, the ASEAN member states have failed to act as one voice due to differing stance on the issue.
How are protesters countering the Tatmadaw?
A week after the coup, tens of thousands of protesters gathered across the streets to resist the takeover by the military junta. They demanded that the November election results be honoured, and the civilian government resorted to its rightful place. On 8th February, Yangon, the largest city witnessed huge demonstrations by the protesters ranging from “young activists to Buddhist monks to teachers”. On 16th February, when the junta decided to shut down the internet for second day in a row, the protesters blocked the street in front of the country’s central bank. Along with that, the train going from Yangon to Mawlamyine was obstructed by them.
On 21st February, the police opened fire on the protesters in Mandalay, which is the second largest city, leading to the death of at least two people. Despite threats of being killed, the protesters have continued to show up in great numbers, as the streets in Yangon, Mandalay, Naypyidaw were packed.
On 8th march, 18 labour organizations colluded together to protest the military’s decision to conduct the coup by a nationwide strike to get all the citizens to join the civil disobedience movement. While the junta have made threats such as 20 years imprisonment to deter people from joining the protest, but people are working in conjunction to ensure that democratic government is reinstated as soon as possible.
Despite night raids, tear gas and stun grenades being used by the security forces on the campaign leaders as well as activists, the people staged a sit-in protest in Mandalay, demanding the release of their leader Aung San Suu Kyi who was to lead the government after the new parliament was to be convened on 1st February.
The way forward:
Neither the Tatmadaw nor the protesters seem to relinquish efforts to achieve their respective objectives. The goal of the military junta is to establish law and order in the country and deter people from protests while the protesters are keen to get the Aung Sun Suu Kyi’s government back in power and thereby legitimatise the November 2020 election results. Major western powers, as well as the United Nations Secretary General has called on the Tatmadaw to give the power back to the elected democratic government.
The Security Council failed to unanimously condemn the coup due to China’s objections who sees the coup as ‘major cabinet reshuffle’. It remains to be seen whether the military junta will release the political prisoners who have been arrested, but at present, there is not any sign which may signal that it is ready to honour the result of the election.
End notes
1)https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/Burma
2)https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya
3)https://www.firstpost.com/world/myanmar-coup-explained-what-led-to-military-takeover-of-suu-kyis-fragile-democratic-govt-and-what-happens-next-9261541.html
4)https://www.jagranjosh.com/current-affairs/myanmar-leader-aung-san-suu-kyi-party-wins-myanmar-general-elections-2020-1605263919-1
5)https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/myanmars-military-refuses-rule-out-coup-over-election-fraud-claims
6)https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/myanmar-election-commission-rejects-militarys-fraud-claims/article33698217.ece
7)https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/myanmar-coup-timeline-suu-kyi-history-b1795773.html
8)https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/01/asia/myanmar-military-coup-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html
9)https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489
10)https://rusi.org/commentary/myanmar-military-coup-international-reactions
11)https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/33434/Press_Statement_on_developments_in_Myanmar
12)https://www.e-ir.info/2021/03/06/opinion-beijings-position-on-the-myanmar-coup/
13)https://www.vox.com/2021/2/8/22272367/myanmar-protests-coup-democracy
14)https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/myanmar-protesters-block-trains-and-streets-after-military-coup
15)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/brawling-myanmar-monks-show-buddhist-nationalists-backing-coup
16)https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-coup-myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-and-the-way-forward/
Pic Courtesy-Nandan Singh Bhaisora
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE or its officials.)
