Russia Japan bilateral ties and the changing dynamics
Foreign policy scholars and analysts across the world are of the opinion that even though the majority of Japanese policies have not changed since Suga Yoshihide replaced Abe as Japanese Prime Minister, there may be a change in the Japanese foreign policy outlook towards Russia. Abe had already set the motion to improve ties with Russia, and now it depends on Yoshihide and Putin and his successor, if and when Putin steps down.
Prior to 19th CE, relations between Japan and Russia were amicable. However, Russia's expansionist behavior threatened Japanese security and conflict over the Korean peninsula and Manchukuo, it led to the Russo-Japanese War. Japan won the war in 1905 and the relationship between both countries strained further with the advent of the Cold War and Japan's pro-USA stance. The relationship has been further soured by Russia's occupation of four islands - Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai which are a part of Japanese territory since 1945. The occupation of these 4 northern islands has been hailed as illegal by Japanese while Russia has refused to accept that.
After the end of the Cold War, the then Russian President Yeltsin agreed to discuss the territorial disputes over the four islands. It also led to the signing of the Tokyo Declaration in 1993 and it Declaration also recognized the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956, which suggested that both sides would talk about the returning of the two out of four islands - Habomai and Shikotan to Japan. The Tokyo foundation was also the stepping zone for the signing of Irkutsuk Statement signed between then-President Vladimir Putin and then-Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in March 2001, in which the two leaders agreed to continue negotiations based on the 1993 Tokyo Declaration.
There has been no resolution of this territorial disputes till now even though advances have been made from both the sides. However, these advances are always mostly been all talk and no show. The Northern Territory issues as the Japanese call it has never sparked a conflict between the two countries. The Japanese government has never contested the Russian occupation of the islands by force or the threat of force. But at the same time, it has used the used it as a bait in its bilateral dealings with Russia, maintaining the claim of the islands and insisting on its return.
While the issue of Northern Territories lingers between both the countries, the economic relations have been good. Russia had been an importer of Japanese machinery, including automobiles. However, the 2008 global financial crises hit Russian economy severely, the imports from Russia fell drastically, and in 2015 the imports declined as the prices of energy resources fell. At the same time, Japan imported Russian energy resources. Before 1998, it was the metal, wood and call and from 2014 onwards oil and natural gas formed the majority of imports.
One of the defining features of the economic relationship between Japan and Russia has been the in the domain of energy. Both the countries have tried to foster economic relationship by cooperation in the energy sector. Both the countries have partnered for projects like Sakhalin-I and Sakhalin-II, which aims to produce oil and natural gas on the island of Sakhalin. Both Japan and Russia have invested in this project. Similarly, The East Siberia-Pacific (ESPO) Ocean Pipeline Project is a energy project which aims to create a system for exporting crude oil from Russia to Asian markets with Japan being one of the markets and also a stakeholder in the project. There are other projects too like development of oil fields in the Irkutsk Region to Japanese oil which is nowhere near completion or Vladivostok LNG. led by Gazprom which aimed to, production of 15 million tons of LNG per annum and export Russian oil to Asian markets, which too is stagnated since 2013.
While the policymakers and analysts were of a view that things would change drastically as Abe came to power, given that he tried to change the dynamics of the Japan Russia relationship which his new approaches. The key rationale for Tokyo's renewed approach towards Russia is the rise of China. The logic is simple and easy to understand - China’s power is increasing in all domains and Russia is aligned with China on many issues concerning Asian politics. Increased ties with Russia, would lead to Russia reducing its dependency on China which would weaken the latter’s position in the international politics and also in the Asian region.
While the cooperation in trade of natural resources requires development of oil and coal deposits and lots of investments into it, the trade in natural gas required careful consideration and implementation. Both the spheres are risky to trade and the worse blow is when everything is there but the commitment lacks. The lack of commitment towards economic cooperation is due to two main reasons between Russia and Japan. But while both the countries tried to move beyond the territorial issue and work on strengthening ties, the stagnation in economic cooperation even during the Abe-Putin era is like repeating history. Like most of the bilateral relationships between the countries in the world, on paper the Russo-Japanese relationship in trade is ideal - Japan needs Russian natural resources while Russia need Japanese technology and investment. But despite having similar needs, there have been impediments in the improvement of the relationship.
Firstly, Russia has not placed a lot of emphasis on Asia in its foreign policy. Secondly, Russia is still skeptic of Japan's pro-US stance and till date continues to see Japan as a dependent state on USA. Due to these two reasons, Russia has not laid great emphasis on building strong relationship politically or economically with Japan. At the same time, Russia has never been an economically efficient for the foreign investors to invest their resources in not only due to the sanctions imposed on Russia but also the very fact that there are meagre investment opportunities given that the limited economic diversification. Corrupt bureaucracy and tight control of the government on the economic activities through bureaucracy has also impacted the investments in the economic sphere of cooperation.
While Russia is aware of the Japanese logic to improve the bilateral relationship, China is not such a big threat for Russia. China and Russia do not have any territorial disputes unlike China and Japan. Moreover, both China and Russia have same concerns at the international stage and Russia is using China to holds its fort against United States.
Japan's new leader, Yoshihide may say that his government will continue Abe's policy towards Russia, but things might not be the same. While Russia needs Japan to not only make its weakening position stable both economically and politically, Putin and his government has been very standoffish in when it comes to cooperation on issues whether be it when territorial disputes or seeking economic investments. There are high chances that Yoshihide may dish the same behavior to Kremlin. Japan enjoys more power and support from Western countries who are richer and stable and when time comes, Japan will be able to build better alliances than Russia. While Putin accepted the concessions which Abe made, he in return gave nothing. While Russia had high chances of improving its relationships with Japan and securing a strong a partnership, that opportunity has now passed away. Japan may be governed by Shinzo's close aide, but the rules of game will change and they certainly do not look in favor of Russia.
Pic Courtesy-Alexander Smagin at unspalsh.com
(The views expressed are personal views of the author.)
