US-Russia Summit(Biden-Putin virtual meeting)

They calculated that the number of already deployed Russian troops to be between 70,000 to 100,000, but to start an invasion we can expect a combined force of 175,000 troops amasses ahead of incursion.[1] In 2014 Russia used proxy pro-Moscow separatists to seize a large part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine to annexe Crimea.

The White House described this meeting as a “Useful Meeting”. The key issues mentioned by the White House regarding the meeting were Ukraine, strategic stability, cybersecurity, and Iran’s nuclear program. But the most important part of the meeting is going to be Ukraine because of the troops' buildup over the borders. Both leaders spoke frankly about the ongoing conflict over Ukraine, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in a briefing to reporters after the call said that President Biden warned Putin of strong economic sanctions should Russia invades Ukraine, signalling that any military aggression by Russia would have stronger ramifications than it did back in 2014 when Russia invaded and took the Crimean peninsula. “I will look in the eye and tell you as president Biden looked President Putin in the eye and told him today that things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now,” said the National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

In terms of the specifics the White House communicated that directly to the Russians to not negotiate in public, did not Telegraph their punches, but they laid out some detailed types of measures that they have in mind for the Russians. President Putin responded to the warning with his demand for a reliable legally binding guarantee against NATO expansion eastward and complained about NATO attempts to develop Ukrainian territory. There were no breakthroughs in the standoff or reported. Both sides agreed to continue communication, a development that could lower global tensions. Kremlin continues to deny having any intentions to invade Ukraine saying that it's so built up on the border is defensive. After the 2-hour call president, Biden also spoke to western allies of the UK, France, Germany and Italy all of them agreed to work closely together on this issue.

The United States has made it clear that while it is pursuing diplomatic channels to defuse the situation it is also preparing for all contingencies. In terms of the next steps, President Putin agreed that their teams will follow up on the issues to discuss with the President Biden and his European colleagues, agreed that their teams will work together to ensure that their engagement with Russia going forward.The US allies would be closely coordinating with European allies and partners so that they are all on the same page. There's a lot of work to do with the days ahead as US pursues diplomatic channels US will also prepare for all contingencies just as US have been doing for weeks now including through the preparation of specific responses to Russian escalation should they be required specific robust clear responses.

Ukraine became part of the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP). At the 2016 Summit in Warsaw and later in 2021 at the Brussels summit, the NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 on Ukraine becoming a member of NATO with the membership action plan (MAP). The growing concern for the Kremlin right now is the strength build-up of the Ukraine navy and their combined exercises with the NATO in the Black sea. Kyiv has agreed to build warships and boats with Turkey, France and Britain. Britain also agreed to supply missiles to arm the warships. If missiles are placed in Russia they can hit Russia in 5-7 minutes, which is a threat that Putin is trying to prevent. Russia described the situation as there are some “Red lines” in the actions of NATO and NATO needs to back down on those actions, which are NATO not putting its infrastructure in Ukraine and asking for assurance that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. Biden publicly said that he does not accept anybody’s red lines.

 The United States voiced its concerns regarding the recent escalations of Russian forces on the Ukraine border. The US also made it clear that will respond with its lies with strong economic measures and other measures in the event of further military escalation. The president talked with the European allies from Germany, France, Italy and the united kingdom to make sure they are in alignment in their front. “There should be powerful, serious preventive sanctions in order to exclude a scenario of [Russian] escalation in any region because this not only concerns Ukraine”[2]. Russia said that the troop build-ups seen at the border are defensive tactics, and Russia says that the reason for those defensive tactics is the movement of NATO security infrastructure near its western border, Russia denies U.S. assertions that it is planning an invasion of Ukraine and accuses Kyiv of building up its forces in the east of the country. Putin also said that the situation is more than serious for them. Both sides say that the other side is trying to destabilize the region. On the day of the meeting, the Kremlin said that Russia and US relations are in a lamentable state.

According to the United States Putin didn't give any indication of ultimate intent about whether to invade Ukraine or not. There is no clarity whether if it is the move to make ways to pay attention to his demands by cooking up a crisis. Both leaders are under domestic pressure over this meeting. Russia has not let up its military build up along the border with Ukraine since the virtual summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. The forward-deployment of hundreds of Russian tanks, self-propelled artillery, howitzers and tens of thousands of troops has not been reversed. Even though the build-up seems to be for sending a message and for negotiations, bargaining tactics, any accidents or Incidents can lead to a hot crisis. As the build-up is done throughout months and NATO is unlikely to accept Russia’s demands, it is almost impossible that if the troops are going to back down, they are not backing down without getting something in return from the negotiations, and what exactly is it going to take to lower the build-up in the region is the question now. The United States is also not in a position to stop the invasion, if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, and Biden is under domestic pressure to take the upper hand in the negotiations. What one can look forward to is more meetings about defusing the situation, As bilateral negotiations cannot produce any substantial agreements in a couple of hours meetings between the parties. There is another meeting coming up that was scheduled by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, it is a special meeting of allied ambassadors and top Russian officials in the coming weeks.

Notes

[1] https://www.voanews.com/a/no-signs-of-russia-deescalating-on-ukraine-border/6362252.html

[2] https://www.voanews.com/a/no-signs-of-russia-deescalating-on-ukraine-border/6362252.html

Pic Courstey-Eugene at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)