What does the proposed China-Russia 'Regional Security Dialogue’ reflects?
As the U.S.- China relationship finds itself locked into the irreversible trajectory of strategic competition, the Cold War 2.0 seems plausible. While some scholars argues that New Cold War is already hovering over the Unites States and China some other considers its possibility in near future out of geopolitical and economic rivalry between the world’s biggest economy. The Great Power interaction have always gravitated by the Cold War which had become its inevitable tenet. In the old Cold War US-Soviet Union and China were the predominant power of the world whose interaction with each other influenced the global politics to the core. Similarly, the New Cold war also started to adjust the global Balance of Power by establishing interaction among the powers and that reflects in China-Russia bid to the outpower the predominant U.S. by joining hands.
Since, the Quad has become the manifestation of the United States containment strategy in the Indo-Pacific, which includes India, Japan and Australia, it does not go down well with Beijing who seems annoyed, and the reasons are real. Those countries which comprise the group do not share very cordial relations with China, and indeed India and Japan consider China as the biggest threat to its national security which spurred the suspicion in the Beijing that Quad is basically the anti-China group designed to check China’s rise and to maintain US predominance in the region.
In the meantime, Sino-Russian strategic cooperation seems to embolden, both have responded with the flurry of military exercise after the virtual Quad summit and have shown new embrace of Iran and North Korea with Pakistan being the third pillar of the relationship. Russia, under the leadership of its autocratic leader Putin, desires to resuscitate its lost power and influence which it had during the Soviet era. In addition, the sanctions put by western world over Russia after annexation of Crimea have put the Russian economy in jeopardy. Amidst all this, Russia and China proposed the ‘Regional Security Dialogue’ to address the security concern of the countries of the region following the meeting between Russian and Chinese foreign minister. The timing of the announcement is itself critical as it came just days after the U.S.-China summit in Alaska and the leaders' summit of the Quad. In the meeting America has been warned against forming the small group in the region and rejected its call for ‘rule-based order’. To put things more clearly, meeting entirely targets the Quad and any group forming in the region that is antithetical to the interests of Russia and China. The proximity of Russia and China and the challenges posed by Quad has given rise to the idea of a separate platform for regional security. Russia and China are already the part of Shanghai Cooperation Organization which includes India, but the new bloc formation will have the geopolitical impact on the entire region. One need to take notice that during previous Cold War Euro-Atlantic was the strategic playing ground while the new Cold War is likely to take place in the Indo-Pacific region, the shift marks the increasing geopolitical importance of the region which compelled Russia and China to do not lose grip over this part of the world, crucial to national security but dominated by USA.
The cooperation between Russia and China is geopolitical imperative specially at the time when the relation with the west seems in disarray. Both the countries have celebrated successful completion of two decades of Sino-Russian Treaty of friendships with the video conferencing between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his counterpart Xi Jinping. In recent years, the relationship between both the countries described to have attained an ‘unprecedented high level’. Russia and China have extensive shared interest and apart from strategic cooperation this partnership also has significant developmental aspect as well; both the countries have collaborating on the variety of fields such as aircraft manufacturing, energy, environmental protection, lunar research. Technological cooperation between Russia and China described by the as the ‘most promising areas of cooperation', the military technical partnership has the strategic importance for both the nations which have enhanced in the aftermath of Crimea crisis in 2014.
Russia has overcome its early reluctance to sell latest technology to China, signing deals for the supply of SU-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile defense system furthermore, ready to help China in developing its ballistic missile early warning system. Both the Eurasian countries have witnessed the launch of four nuclear power units of a bilateral nuclear energy cooperation project which have suggested the deepening engagements in technological domain. America has been looking of allies in the Asia and expanded the reach of Quad towards South Korea and Taiwan which also appears to be threatened by China’s rise. In response, Iran and North Korea will be the possible allies of China-Russia front, this situation consequently might spiral into Cold War style dilemma for the countries. However, the arisen situation in Afghanistan also a possible ground for China – Russia cooperation, adding Pakistan into the calculations, when USA will withdraw from the soil. This will have strategic implications on India’s standing in Afghanistan as China and Russia appears ready to cooperate with Taliban.
The cooperation cannot go far without economy involved in it and both the countries know it from the very beginning. The sanctions put by Europe and US, has plummeted Russian oil export and defense sales, and barred Chinese companies from taking part in the 5G development in their respective territories, that has resulted in a close cooperation between two nations. Beijing and Moscow have negotiated the long-suffering bilateral energy deals and Russian agriculture export have pushed the trade to new heights which have doubled from the 2013 level to all time high in 2020 despite Coronavirus pandemic similarly Chinese companies finds a suitable market for 5G infrastructure development in Russia. The shared geopolitical signal has beneficial element for Russia and China who seeks to escape the dollar dominated global financial structure which reflected from the Russian foreign Minister view in his recent visit to China, where he stressed the need to “move away from the international payment systems controlled by the west.”
Nonetheless, the Sino-Russian relation is not set in stone despite the increased cooperation, Russia is mindful about not to perceived as inferior partner to China and growing imparity and standing could inhibit the future cooperation; Some in Russia indeed fear the overdependence on China economy. Renowned realist scholars John Mearsheimer suggest that Biden should drop the Russophobia and seeks to exploit the gap between both the countries. Both the nations have cried the Quad meeting as the ‘Cold War’ mentality of the USA to form NATO like alliance system veiled by multilateralism while proposing the ‘Regional security dialogue’ echoes the same mentality. However, the frank acknowledgment of the fact that the USA and China are adversary is necessary precondition to for realistic strategic assessment to constrain the future worst-case outcomes where cooperation is tough but not impossible and those cannot see the ground for cooperation between democratic and authoritarian state ignores the lessons of history.
References-
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Pic Courtesy-Alex Zarubi at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
