While the rest of the world teeters on the edge of freefall decline, China tells the world it is fine. Is it though? Just as the initial outbreak of the virus had been covered up, so also it would seem that China is now covering up the number of deaths and the extent of the virus today. The country has been prone to covering its mistakes in projecting a strong and united government and nation. However, with the way most of these cover-ups have gone south over the years, it should have been obvious to the government in China that it must project some sense of transparency to the world in dealing with and mitigating this crisis. Nonetheless, there seems to be a plausible reason in explanation of such activity. China’s leadership has become highly fearful and paranoid about losing both power and legitimacy. And while it has faced numerous challenges in the past, this crisis could prove to be its biggest challenge yet.
President Xi Jinping’s leadership has been premised on the idea of a strong nationalized identity and he has taken no small steps in gaining it. In solidifying this national identity, he has implemented many such policies that have hinged heavily towards authoritarianism. From the harsh treatment of the Uighurs and intervention in Hong Kong to the centralization of political power under himself, the President’s anti-democratic nature has only come further to the front. However, it has become apparent that most of these policies and changes have not been welcomed with open arms. In fact, even though Xi has sought hard to concentrate power through the eradication of opposition and the use of propaganda, his dissidents have not decreased. Surprisingly, these voices of dissent exist in most spheres of the country, from journalists and activists to billionaires and even party officials. And while such opposition towards Xi has existed since the beginning of his term, in the face of the coronavirus crisis, it has seen new heights.
Starting with the initial coverup of the crisis and failure to implement actions in mitigating it, the Chinese public has expressed massive criticism against the government. For the first time, both local provincial authorities and the central leadership have both become the target of widespread ridicule online. Much of this ridicule regarding the crisis began when the treatment of Dr Li Wenliang, the whistle-blower came to the surface. While individuals like him were punished and detained for “spreading rumoursâ€, the virus continued to spread as the authorities remained complacent and refused to do anything. The online revolt that began on Weibo, one of China’s biggest social media platforms, was only the first in a barrage of criticism aimed at the government. The Weibo revolt had posts demanding freedom of speech along with a change in government before they were deleted by the Chinese propaganda machine. Since then the opposition has only intensified.
Many activists who have continuously challenged the actions of the government have disappeared under the guise of “quarantineâ€. These include journalists, professors and legal scholars. Wuhan businessman and video journalist, Fang Bin and Lawyer Chen Qiushi were among the first to have disappeared during the initial outbreak of the virus as a result of their condemnation of the government. Along with them, another professor, Xu Zhangrun who heavily criticised President Xi in his control of the coronavirus was also forcefully put under house arrest. These were only some of the cases that emerged during the beginning of the crisis. Since then many critics of Xi’s government's policies have followed down the same path. In the latest instance this criticism has been raised to a new level with Chinese billionaire Ren Zhiqiang, the former chief of the Huayuan group, a state-owned developer voicing his own dissent against the leader. The Chinese tycoon called Xi a “clown†and it has been reported that he is now being held in a secret prison in Beijing and may face a sentence of nearly 15 years. Shockingly, these opinions of the leader are shared by even those working in government-controlled organizations. Hu Xijin, the editor of the Global Times China who has generally been a strong pro-government voice recently published an op-ed heavily criticising the Wuhan city government and the central medical regulation authorities for their response to the situation.
This increasing criticism has reportedly not only found the government’s policies as its target but also its propagandist actions as well. In controlling the voices and opinions being raised against the government, Xi’s propaganda machine has begun to work in full swing. Stories and posts on social media have been censored or removed almost as soon as they appear, revealing how the government has sought to control all information available to its citizens. Not only have posts which are critical of the government been removed but also those reporting new cases of the virus. It is reported that these stories of new cases have indicated that Hubei Province has far from moved towards normality and cases abound daily. In its attempt to assure its citizens of normality and stability it would seem that the government has once again sought to lie to the public. However, the country is far from stable and Xi’s government faces mounting challenges by the day.
The fact that information regarding further coverup of cases has reached the public could prove to be highly destabilising for the Chinese establishment. It has shown that the Chinese government and its propaganda machine is failing in the face of the tremendous amount of information it has to suppress. This would mean that even though Beijing is determined to generate good public opinion it has faced tough competition. While the government has sent hundreds of state-sponsored journalists to Hubei in an attempt to churn out stories of sacrifice, service and support to the nation, people have already witnessed other stories. Stories and videos showing people chained and beaten up on the streets by the police for not wearing masks or those showing people begging for hospital beds and medical care have also surfaced. Along with this, there are claims that the health officials in China are still struggling to cope with the crisis and have also been cremating suffering people alive. While the latter is most likely false, such claims have nonetheless sparked even more rage against the government and its leadership.
Seemingly, the Chinese government has done everything within its power to divert attention away from itself and redirect the blame for the coronavirus. China’s official evolving narrative of the crisis has seen it release a number of statements doing the same. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs initially stated that the coronavirus may have originated outside China and the origins are yet to be determined. It later went on to blame the United States directly for the outbreak. Interestingly there are multiple controversies surrounding US plans to undermine China and the government seemingly played this card well. However, these claims do not seem to be achieving much for the government. Most still hold the government accountable for the extent of the crisis today and negative opinion has resulted in all-out protest against the government. In this regard, it is important to note that China is not only facing internal dissent but also a largely negative international response as well. The longer this crisis lasts in Europe and the United States the more it turns into a public relations disaster for the Chinese government. Many feel that China being the cause of the crisis has gotten away relatively unscathed. This would mean that the strong political image that Xi has been building on the international front may also come crumbling down. Countries have anyways become wary of China’s growth, and this heightening crisis will only bolster negativity towards China.
While one could be challenged on the assumption that mere international repute or public dissent against the handling of a virus could lead to the toppling of the Chinese leader, there are other facts that also must be taken into account. A mounting economic crisis coupled with a possible crop shortage could give rise to further dissent against the government. China is yet to see the full brunt of this crisis. While the first wave has passed with more than 80000 cases according to official records, the second wave could be even more devastating. However, leaving aside the health situation in China would highlight a few other problems lurking under the surface. An already slowing Chinese economy was hit hard by the crisis and brought about massive losses to both manufacturers and markets alike. While there have been claims that the country’s economy has been steadily picking up after the easing of the lockdown, there is no clear signs of the same. The prolonged quarantining of citizens has left thousands of workers unable to return to work, making factories struggle in achieving full capacity and productivity. With the shortage of labour, essential parts and most importantly, a strong consumer market, it is unlikely that the Chinese economy will be running at full pace any time soon.
The last health crisis, the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 did not deal China such a devastating blow as compared to this new COVID-19 crisis. In 2003 the country made up most of its losses by quickly tapping into a large demand in the west. Today, the United States and the European Union, the biggest importers of Chinese goods are suffering majorly due to the coronavirus themselves. It is unlikely then that China will find enough customers across the west to gain back its traction in the global economy. In this regard, it is also unlikely that China would branch out elsewhere as other emerging markets will not be able to compensate for customers in the west. Therefore, even though the Chinese government will soon introduce a major fiscal stimulus, growth estimates for 2020 still vary between 1 and 4 percent against the original target of 6 percent. Reportedly, there have already been mumblings in the party regarding Xi’s handling of a few issues and such economic problems could only lead to a further escalation of dissent. China’s accumulating debt levels have already surpassed 300 percent of its GDP and several more instances of inept governance could in-fact provoke a leadership change.
As mentioned earlier, there is another problem that is looming and has seemingly not caught the attention of most of the western media. There have been accounts of two major threats facing the daily lives of the Chinese public. Much of last year, China has been suffering from a crop problem. Where the US-China trade war had already begun to diminish essential crop supplies, a pest infestation threatened to worsen the situation even more. And while there aren’t many reports regarding the current status of this agricultural crisis, towards the end of February this year China’s agricultural ministry said that the armyworm situation was set to worsen in 2020. It was also estimated that even though prevention and control measures would be aggressive, the armyworm was expected to destroy nearly 6.67 million hectares of corn and rice this year, as well as other crops like winter wheat, sorghum and sugar cane. While the government has sourced funding towards the eradication of these pests, not much has actually been done on this front.
Along with this mounting crop crisis, China is also seeing a resurgence of African swine fever in its pig population. The country has spent the last two years struggling with this epizootic and the coronavirus epidemic has stalled all recovery in that area. The country is seen as the biggest consumer of pork in the world and between 2018 and 2019 it lost more than 60% of its swine population. And while small farms and businesses have already been shutting shop due to the mounting prices and massive imports of pork, the travel restrictions due to the lockdown have led to the number of shut businesses only increasing. Restarting the economy and these sectors are proving to be a serious problem for the Chinese government and questions concerning Chinas food security have been raised. And with these questions, protest against the government’s handling of the situation has only seen a steady rise.
President Xi may find that a huge storm is picking up with the mounting agricultural problems, internal unhappiness, and an economic crisis which could undermine the consolidated power he has worked so hard to achieve. Would the coming years bring with it the end of the Xi Presidency? The current scenario could actually point to the same. The coronavirus crisis has already shown that the centralization of political power has numerous flaws, resulting in the initial cover-up of the virus and the current undercounting of deaths. President Xi’s system of top-down control has made party officials fearful of reprimand and thus led to them covering up the crisis, where nobody acted until there were official directions from the top and then everyone overreacted to appease the leader. In doing so, both provincial officials and the central government have faced serious criticism from the Chinese public. Many analysts have stated that the rough implementation of epidemic control has led to extensive human rights abuses across China and many accounts such as those stated above support these claims.
However, such opposition as mentioned earlier does not only originate in the Chinese public and has also seen takers in political circles. While it is nothing new, political tensions within the party only seem to be mounting over the past few years. Reportedly, the expansion in the Sino-US conflict on issues such as the trade war and the South China Sea, the Hong Kong protests, the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, the Uighur Bill and finally the handling of this crisis have come under heavy veiled criticism from political factions within the party. It would seem that President Xi’s efforts to concentrate power have only given rise to increased internal duress against him. There have been a number of open letters circulating online, suggesting the convening of an extraordinary meeting of the Politburo to assess President Xi’s handling of the crisis. It has also been rumoured that this proposal has been issued by Wang Qishan, Vice President of the Peoples Republic of China.
While it is unlikely that such rumours would be proved true, this is not the first time that high-level officials within the party have shown unease towards President Xi’s policies. Last year during the height of the Hong Kong protests it had become apparent that top leadership within the Chinese government had been in disarray regarding the handling of the situation. Internal struggles within the party have always existed and people like Wang Qishan and other party members currently form a group of people who have been unhappy with many of Xi’s policies, especially in regard with his US trade war. Once known as Chinas “firefighter†and head of the party’s high-powered anti-corruption wing, Wang Qishan is believed to have been given the Vice-Presidents ceremonial role as a demotion. It would thus not come as a shock if the open letter was indeed a proposal from the Chinese Vice President.
It would seem that Xi has effectively created enemies with each policy that he implements. His anti-corruption campaign has perhaps generated most of these adversaries. The exact number of people crippled by this campaign of his is unknown, however, it is estimated that nearly 300-400 members of the Chinese elite and military have been punished. The numbers do not stop at the 300 or 400 though, as every investigation into these corruption charges has led to thousands of people being penalised. With every official investigated, hundreds of people who were part of his or her patronage networks have also suffered. President Xi has thus destroyed thousands in the elite and has effectively made enemies of them all. While those arrested or affected by this policy could possibly not cause much of a challenge to him, other policies have invited challenges nonetheless. Since mid-2018, Xi has faced a huge backlash against both his economic and foreign policies. Most scholars or officials have voiced their critique in private however there are a few such as Deng Xiaoping’s son, Deng Pufang who explicitly voiced his dissent against China’s leadership for its foreign policies.
It has thus become clear that political tensions and struggles within the Communist Party of China are brewing. Xi will not be able to redirect blame away from the backlash against his repressive policies for long. It can now be said that without a doubt it was his policies of centralisation and repressiveness that led to the initial coverup of the crisis. However, it has already become clear that it is not only his mishandling of the crisis that has stoked such opposition against him. Nevertheless, this crisis could indeed by the final straw for the Chinese leader. Technically, the abolition of term limits would mean that Xi could stay on as President for life. However, whether he will still retain power by the end of his term in 2022 is still up for question. 2022 will thus prove to be an important year for the party leadership. If Deng Xiaoping’s fixed tenure arrangement will be implemented, all but two of the current seven Politburo standing committee members will have to retire, observing the 68-year limit. This would mean that the next two years will signify a time of intense political tensions within the party. President Xi’s grip on power seems already to be slipping away and in the face of this deteriorating situation, only time will tell whether he regains it or loses it.
While many are under the assumption that China is achieving President Xi’s “strong national identityâ€, it would seem that it is a mere façade, behind which lies a highly unstable political scenario. Multiple crises have led to a steady decline in Xi’s approval and it has slowly become clear that opposition is brewing. There seems to be not much that the Chinese leader can do seeing that even his strong propaganda machine is now failing. Even though it has swung into overdrive, it has been unable to completely stop open critical expression against the leader.
Essentially though, the fact that China's propaganda machine has been working in full swing tells only one story. The government is scared. They know that they cannot suppress the public's opinion for much longer and have turned towards changing that very opinion. From the outside though, it would seem that these activities have not really been effective or beneficial for President Xi. Nonetheless, it has become increasingly clear that Xi’s government has become frantic in its attempt to address both public and political pressures and opposition. It would be only a matter of time before the results of these activities become clear. Will Xi prevail? Or are we looking at a fast-approaching change in Chinese leadership?