On February 29, 2020 at Doha, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar signed the so called “peace deal”, thus moving closer in the direction of ending longest war in the American history. On the part of US, it agreed to remove its troops completely out of Afghanistan by the end of 2021 in phases, but this withdrawal is conditioned on the Taliban to not allow the Afghan soil to be used against the security of United States and its allies. The agreement also involves the clause to release up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners held in Afghan jails.
Interestingly the Afghan government was not a party to the deal. It was only between Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the name Taliban uses to refer itself) & United States. The US has already hit the agreed reduction of its forces to 8600 in first phase, almost a month before the pre-decided date July 15, 2020. This indicates that the US is in a hurry to vacate, and also proves that increase in violent activities of the Taliban will not create any delay in exit of American forces. This is not the ideal peace deal what ordinary Afghan citizens were expecting, as it appears to be a compromise by the US. The so called ‘peace deal’ agreement stands on several assumptions, which makes it difficult to yield expected results. The surge in violent attacks on Afghan forces in the past few months further confirms it.
Why does the US want to withdraw from Afghanistan?
US forces are fighting in the far-flung landlocked multi ethnic country since 2001 and this has exhausted its appetite to continue war. There are various reasons for it, one, the popular sentiment in US is against the unnecessary spending of millions of dollars to fight a terror outfit which is no longer a direct threat to US. Second, the rise of China in geopolitics & the trade war with it have drastically altered the foreign & security policy priority of US and the third reason is the domestic political factor where Trump wants to diffuse the anti-war sentiment among U.S. citizens, which could otherwise get used as a political tool against him in upcoming presidential elections later this year. In fact, it was one of the pre-election promises made by Trump during his 2016 elections campaign, although efforts to reduce troops were started from few years back itself they didn’t materialize in time due to multiple hurdles in bring consensus among all stakeholders in Kabul.
Emboldened Taliban may lead to derailment of peace agreement
With the exit of US forces, the present National unity government under Ashraf Ghani will become more fragile, and Taliban may take-over the driving seat in Kabul. In the words of Donald Trump, “Eventually, countries have to take care of themselves and it is possible that the Taliban would over run the Afghan military after withdrawal of U.S. forces” This is enough to give us a hint towards what is in store for Kabul in coming days. For many Afghans the exit of U.S. forces triggers the fear of another reign of terror similar to that of 1990s, especially the plight of women. After all the negotiation agreements, the peace deal applies only to Taliban’s truce with US soldiers and not with the Afghan security forces. More than anything, the negotiation process & the consequent deal with U.S. has given an international recognition & authenticity to Taliban, that they are the one who really matter in Afghan political & security future. All this will no doubt embolden Taliban during intra Afghan negotiations with the government in Kabul.
Within a month after the peace deal, hundreds of Afghan forces have already been killed & wounded by Taliban, and even civilians were targeted in some cases. The most heinous act was carried out on a May 12 this year when Dasht-e-Barchi Hospital’s maternity ward came under attack, killing more than 20 women and children, although no organization took the responsibility for attack. A month later MSF (Medical charity Doctors Without Borders) announced to stop its work in Kabul’s Dasht-e-Barchi Hospital for security reasons, further weakening the already fragile health infrastructure amid Covid-19 crisis. According to the chief of Afghan intelligence Brig Gen Ahmed Zia Siraj Taliban has involved in more than 3800 attacks in various parts of the country, by killing 420 people within first 50 days after peace deal. Numerous suicide attacks, killing innocent citizens and attacks on Afghan forces have increased after the peace agreement. All this indicates that the so-called “peace deal” is bound to get derailed in the near future.
Tussle between Ashraf Ghani & Abdullah Abdullah
The politics of Afghanistan is deeply divided on ethnic & tribal lines. The major tussle is between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, who are considered to be leaders of Pashtuns and non-Pashtun Afghans respectively. This divide between the two leaders went to the extent of the US deciding to cut its $1 million aid in March this year, because of disappointment caused by failing to unite political blocs in Kabul. However, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s efforts to convince the two reluctant leaders for a political arranged marriage came successful with the power sharing deal on May 1, 2020, thus ending months of stalemate that had pushed the country into political crisis. The agreement ensures 50% share in cabinet for both rival blocs and it also says that it is Abdullah Abdullah to conduct future peace talks with Taliban during intra Afghan negotiations. The intra Afghan peace talks between Taliban and Afghan government are agreed to be held at Doha a week after all 5000 Taliban prisoners held by Afghan government get released. Unless a broad political consensus presides in Kabul, it is difficult to stop the dominance of Taliban during intra Afghan talks, so no doubt Abdullah Abdullah has an uphill task to unite all stakeholders.
Hurdles for intra Afghan peace talks
The most contentious part in the peace deal is the release of 5000 Taliban prisoners’ issue. Till now around 3000 Taliban prisoners have been released by the government, and in return Taliban has also released hundreds of Afghan army soldiers. Afghan government is ready to release all the remaining prisoners soon, except for a few hundred who are considered to be “the most dangerous”, who carried out Afghanistan’s most violent attacks. But Taliban is hell bent on the demand for release of all the prisoners as a prerequisite to start the intra Afghan peace talks. Taliban so far has not recognized the elected government, so it is difficult to predict if Taliban will cooperate with the Afghan government during intra Afghan peace talks in the absence of US forces. There is also a high chance that Taliban may push for Sharia Law over present Afghan constitution and such demands will further erode the chances of establishing peace in the country.
Importance of Afghanistan to India
The growing energy need of India has made it one of the major importers of oil & gas resources. Central Asian republics being gas & oil resource rich will become indispensible for Indian energy needs in the coming decades. For India, the gateway to Central Asia is Afghanistan, so it is important for India to have a friendly regime in Kabul to ensure the route to Central Asia is safe for Indian trade. Since Pakistan doesn’t provide land transit for India to reach Central Asia via Afghanistan, India is dependent upon the long alternative route, which is a network of ship, rail and road route for moving cargo between India, Iran, Afghanistan and then to Central Asia. To achieve this alternative route, India has invested heavily in Afghanistan & Iran, so if the situation in Afghanistan turns unstable & hostile, India’s investment gets caught in not only Afghanistan but also its investments in Iran. Because of its geostrategic importance, Afghanistan is seen by India as a counter balance to Pakistan and China’s anti-India strategy in the region. The history of partial link between withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in the late 1980s and the increased terror activities in Kashmir during the same period gives a hint towards how Pakistan may exploit the soon to become directionless Mujahideen fighters of Taliban & ISIS-K to wage proxy war on Indian soil.
India’s contribution in rebuilding Afghanistan since 2001
India is the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan in the world with over $3 billion in assistance. It has built over 200 public schools and sponsors over 1,000 scholarships, and there are over 16,000 Afghan students studying in India. The new Afghan Parliament (National assembly) was built by India and handed over in December 2015 in the presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India has also constructed 220kV DC transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul and a 220/110/20 kV sub-station at Chimtala to bring additional power from the northern grid to Kabul. Salma dam, which is also known as the Afghan-India Friendship Dam, irrigate over 80,000 hectares of land and provide electricity to numerous homes in the Herat province is one of the major infrastructure projects completed by India. Along with this, hundreds of buses, military vehicles, choppers, hospitals, ambulances have all been gifted to uplift Afghan society. India has also built a cricket stadium and financed the Afghan National Agriculture Sciences and Technology University in Kandahar. Indians are also among the largest trainers of the Afghan forces. No doubt, India enjoys tremendous good will among the Afghan citizens. Thus preserving the last two decades’ achievements in Afghanistan is of primary concern to New Delhi.
Pakistan’s game against New Delhi in Afghanistan
In the long stretched Afghan war Pakistan has played on both sides, on the one hand it has received huge aid from the US for two decades, in the name of supporting the fight against terrorism, and on the other hand, it has ensured Taliban is not completely wiped out. Thereby, it has milked the situation to its advantage. Indian contribution to build a stable & competent Afghanistan denies strategic depth to Pakistan, thus it doesn’t want any security goal for India in Afghanistan. Therefore, it ensured that India finds no place in diplomatic negotiations on Afghan peace. What factors favor India in Afghanistan will disfavor Pakistan, so there is a high chance that it will use its connections with some factions of Taliban ranks to snub India’s strategic interests. It may also try to spoil New Delhi’s possible efforts for dialogue with Taliban. Although the “Islamic Emirate” says that the organization is not interested in the internal affairs of any country, the recent trend shows that more hardline elements inside Taliban are not comfortable with the peace deal, and they are finding alternatives like ISIS-Khorasan which is active in its eastern border areas with Pakistan especially in the Nangarhar province. It is such elements that may come handy for Pakistan to sabotage Indian interests in Afghanistan & beyond.
Road ahead for India in Afghanistan
The current situation on ground indicates that there cannot be a regime in Kabul which can deny power to Taliban. The problem for India is the strong links between ISI and the best trained armed faction of Taliban the Haqqani group. Taliban of 1990s which was more independent from foreign influences still listened to Islamabad when it came to matter on India, now the post war Taliban with increased dependence on ISI & Islamabad may lead to the dominance of anti-India forces in Kabul. In the past, India had refused to officially engage with Taliban, but now, as Taliban reemerges politically and as stakes are high for India, it has to relook into the pros and cons of continuing to be disconnected. Taliban has also learnt a lesson from the war, and this time it may perhaps become more nationalistic and formal in its behavior, at least while interacting with the external world. So there is a lower chance that it may support misadventures like involving in hijacking Indian airlines the way it did with IC 814 in 1999 at Kandhar. Thus it is important for India to open channels of communication with all the stake holders in Kabul, and persuade them to realise the importance of remaining engaged in building Afghanistan, even if it means having dialog with Taliban directly or indirectly. At the same time, India has to effectively use its intelligence & diplomatic arm in exposing Pakistan’s role in terror activities in & out of Afghanistan, thereby ensuring that it gets pushed into the blacklist of the FATF or at least stays in the grey list until it mends its actions. This will give a big blow to Pakistan’s economy, which is hugely dependent upon foreign aid and loans from International financial institutions, thus making it unaffordable for Islamabad to completely isolate India in Afghanistan.
Conclusion
Once the U.S. forces completely get out of Afghanistan, there is no doubt that the Taliban will emerge politically strong, and even the political class in Kabul may compromise with it, but the twist is that Taliban itself is a divided house. Some factions of it, which were not happy with the agreement are getting closer to ISIS-K, and this may further complicate the equations in Kabul. It is wise for the US to remember the long term consequences it faced for totally neglecting Afghanistan after the Soviets left it in early 1990s, so it is important for U.S. to not completely abandon Kabul. Thus, consistent diplomatic effort by the US, its allies & other major powers are necessary for smooth transformation. Along with this, the US has to retain at least minimum ground & air military bases to intervene if need arise.
The biggest challenge for any new Afghan political class (may even include Taliban) will be livelihood creation for tens of thousands of former Taliban fighters, in order to reintegrate them to civilian life. Since a majority of these former fighters are from agricultural families, it is important for the government to invest more in the agricultural sector so as to defeat the temptation to pick up arms for money. The 2.9% growth of Afghan economy in 2019, driven mainly by surge in exports of agricultural products, especially fruits & vegetables, is a positive sign in the direction of attracting youths for building a new Afghanistan. For all this to continue, long term financial assistance & training from international institutions, backed with consistent diplomatic efforts led by U.S & other major powers with Kabul are critical.
As far as India’s interests are concerned, without the eyes & ears of the US military and intelligence across Afghanistan, the future looks more challenging. This leaves India with fewer options, and for it to be relevant in Kabul, it has to start looking for factions within Taliban which are not so opposed for dialogue with New Delhi. Along with this, India has to increase its efforts in various regional & multilateral forums, and also during bilateral discussions with the US to ensure & build democratic rule in Kabul, even if it means Taliban will share power. India can even think of appointing a special envoy to do fence mending with Kabul, who can consistently reach out to all the stakeholders to express India’s concerns & views. In any case, it cannot afford the situation like it had in the previous Taliban rule before 2001. Ultimately, it is important for India to be relevant in Afghan affairs in whatever little ways and to be prepared for all eventualities.
Picture Courtsey-Pierpaolo Lanfrancotti at unsplash.com
(The authors is doctoral student at Jindal School of International Affairs, O P Jindal University. The views expressed are personal)