Island Militarisation and Techno-Diplomacy: Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean Fault Lines Amid India-Greece Alignment
The Eastern Mediterranean is emerging as a critical arena of geopolitical competition where maritime disputes, technological innovation, and strategic alignments increasingly intersect. Turkey’s Blue Homeland doctrine, expanding drone diplomacy, and growing naval assertiveness have transformed long-standing territorial disputes with Greece into a broader contest over maritime sovereignty, regional influence, and technological power projection Simultaneously, the growing India-Greece strategic partnership and the emergence of initiatives such as the Mediterranean Arc and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are reshaping the region’s geoeconomic, and security landscape. This article examines how island militarisation, unmanned systems, connectivity politics, and techno-diplomacy are redefining the strategic architecture of the Eastern Mediterranean, turning it into a key theatre of multipolar competition and evolving maritime security dynamics
The maritime-to-land security environment across the Indian Ocean to the Eastern Mediterranean is experiencing a fundamental and far-reaching reconfiguration, as traditional maritime territorial issues and the disruptive effects of high-technology defence diplomacy converge. What used to be a geographically segmented range of regional conflicts, especially the ancient Greece-Turkey conflict over the Aegean islands, has now become a structurally important node in a larger system of global strategic rivalry. The core of this changing environment is the emergence of Turkey as a technologically nimble middle power, using domestic defence innovation, especially in unmanned systems, to exert influence in the maritime space. The statement of the Mavi Vatan (Blue Homeland) doctrine not only demonstrate a territorialist ambition but also a conceptual reimagination of maritime sovereignty, one that questions the norms of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and freedom of navigation 1.
At the same time, a new convergence between India and Greece, in the form of the so-called Mediterranean Arc (MedArc), is an indication of the new entrants into the strategic calculus of the region. The role of India is particularly important, as it integrates both geoeconomic power in terms of connectivity projects and increased hard-power potential, thus spreading its strategic presence west of the Suez Canal. This overlap of aggressive Turkish policy and growing India-Greece cooperation forms a new axis of rivalry that goes beyond the traditional bilateral rivalries. It brings together the issues of maritime law, technological asymmetry and infrastructure security into one strategic framework. The Eastern Mediterranean is becoming characterized by the interplay of island militarization and techno-diplomacy, with military deployments, drone warfare, and economic corridors all influencing the stability of the region.
Macro-Economic Prerequisites of India-Greece Strategic Partnership
The strengthening of India-Greece relations which were officially raised to Strategic Partnership in 2023 is a convergence of economic opportunity and strategic necessity based on the complementary structural benefits. In the case of Greece, India is a fast-growing economic partner with a large consumer base, an expanding middle-income population, and strong demand in the shipping industry, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, and digital services 2. This is an important economic potential to Greece because it is trying to diversify its external relations and minimize weaknesses related to excessive dependence on traditional European markets. In the case of India, Greece is not just a trading ally but a geostrategic entry point into Europe that opens up Mediterranean shipping routes and logistical platforms that can facilitate wider connectivity aspirations.
This economic convergence is supported by ambitious policy goals, such as the pledge to increase bilateral trade twofold by 2030, and the drive to broaden collaboration to high-value areas such as technology and infrastructure 3. The Indian companies are also considering using Greek ports and logistics networks as an alternative to the more unpredictable maritime routes to improve the resiliency of their supply chain. Meanwhile, the Greek companies are increasingly entering the Indian urban markets, capitalizing on the fast urbanization and consumerism of India. Such trends demonstrate how bilateral trade is being strategically used as a means of economic interdependence to advance wider geopolitical goals and how bilateral trade is being used as a means of strategic alignment.
The partnership is also integrated into bigger geoeconomic networks like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that puts Greece in a strategic position as a transcontinental connectivity hub. This integration will boost the capacity of Greece as a logistical centre and give India another option to the other routes controlled by other world powers. In this respect, the economic relationship is not only bilateral but systemic, which leads to the restructuring of the world trade flows and the development of new strategic directions. The economic aspect of the India-Greece relationship is therefore the cornerstone on which the larger security and geopolitical collaboration can be established.
The Legal and Historical Architecture: Treaties and Strategic Contestation
The modern conflict between Greece and Turkey on militarization of Aegean islands has its strong bases in legal and historical context that was formed after the break-up of the Ottoman Empire. At the heart of this conflict is the Treaty of Lausanne of 1923 and the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947, which both placed demilitarization requirements on certain islands that were handed over to the sovereignty of Greece 4. Turkey interprets these provisions as legally binding limitations that prohibit the creation of military installations, on the basis that any breach of them constitutes an infringement of international law and a direct threat to its national security. Greece however disagrees with this reading by citing the natural right to self-Defence in Article 51 of the UN Charter, and its military operations as a response to Turkish aggression.
The legal uncertainty is also complicated by the Montreux Convention of 1936 that changed the strategic balance in the region by giving Turkey the control over the Straits and permitting its remilitarization. Greece claims that this development effectively replaced previous demilitarization agreements, especially those of islands like Lemnos and Samothrace, whereas Turkey asserts that there is no such legal continuity. This interpretation difference underscores a larger problem in international law, where overlapping treaties and changing security situations allow room to tell competing stories. Consequently, the juridical order of the Aegean is not a rigid set of principles but a disputed area that can be strategically re-read.
The legal conflicts are not purely theoretical but directly apply to the operations of the two states because they rely on them to legitimize military operations and diplomatic standpoints. The fact that Greek militarization is described by Turkey as a material breach begs the question of sovereignty and the possibility of redefining the territorial arrangements, whereas the focus on self-defence in Greece highlights the importance of the perceived threat in legal arguments. This interaction between law and strategy shows how international legal systems can be instrumentalized in the geopolitical contest as a limitation and means towards the promotion of national interests.
The Unmanned Naval Strategy and the Blue Homeland Doctrine of Turkey
The Mavi Vatan doctrine of Turkey is a holistic approach to strategic thinking that aims to reestablish the maritime sovereignty and project power in the Eastern Mediterranean by incorporating both legal and military potential 5. The doctrine questions the boundaries of established EEZs by claiming ownership of a vast maritime territory and puts Turkey at the center of the energy and security processes in the region. One of the most notable aspects of this approach is the incorporation of unmanned systems in naval operations, which represents a transition to technologically-based types of power projection that place more emphasis on persistence, scalability, and minimization of operational risk.
This approach was matured during the 2026 “Mavi Vatan” exercise, which proved that Turkey could deploy a networked system of drones, unmanned surface vessels, and advanced sensors to provide a layered presence at sea. The employment of UAVs that are deployed by aircraft carriers like the TCG Anadolu also underscores the combination of air and naval power, which allows Turkey to perform surveillance, targeting, and strike missions to a very high level of flexibility. The focus on autonomous systems enables them to continuously monitor the contested areas and reduce the political and military risks involved in manned deployments. The effect is that Turkey is also creating a kind of maritime supremacy that is based on technological asymmetry and not the conventional naval supremacy.
The strategic consequences of such a course of action are also important, since Turkey can create no-go zones and affect maritime activities without having to engage in open conflict. The integration of legal claims and technological potentials can enable Turkey to redefine the operational landscape in such a way that it makes the actions of enemies harder to respond to. This combination of doctrine and technology is indicative of a larger trend in contemporary warfare where innovation is a force multiplier and an instrument of strategic ambiguity.
Drone Diplomacy and Defence Industrial Expansion
The rise of Turkey as a major exporter of unmanned systems is a sign of a planned policy of using Defence technology as a tool of foreign policy. It has been able to establish itself as a major provider of cheap and efficient military technology due to the rapid development of its drone industry, led by companies like Baykar and Roketsan. This drone diplomacy is based on a mercantilist model, with little political strings and laissez-faire export policies, which enables Turkey to build strategic relations in various regions 6. The Turkish drones are also attractive as they are not only cost-effective but also have proven to be effective in various conflict zones and this makes them more believable to the potential buyers. Turkey can increase its geopolitical influence by exporting these systems to a large number of countries and earn economic gains. The combination of industrial policy and foreign policy in the overall strategy of Turkey is depicted in this dual-use of Defence as an economic and a strategic instrument.
Nonetheless, this strategy has its own threats, as the mass spread of drone technology may also help to destabilize the situation in the region and change the balance of power in an unpredictable manner. The success with which Turkey can keep influence over recipient states is determined by its ability to control these dynamics, and remain technologically innovative. Therefore, drone diplomacy is a chance and a challenge in the changing role of Turkey as a regional power.
Greek Defensive Response and Military Modernization
To counter the aggressive policy of Turkey, Greece has undertaken a massive military modernization initiative to improve its Defence and counter the new technological challenges. The key aspect of this initiative is the creation of the so-called Achilles Shield, a multi-layered air and missile defence system, which is aimed at combating drone swarms and sophisticated strike capabilities 7. This program is indicative of a larger trend in network-based warfare, in which integration and real-time information exchange is paramount to operational success.
The modernization strategy of Greece is marked by diversification of relationships, especially with Israel and the United States, which allows it to gain access to modern technologies and skills. The procurement of systems like the F-35 and sophisticated missile systems increases the power projection capabilities of Greece and discourages aggression in case of an attack. Simultaneously, the development of autonomous systems and digital infrastructure suggests that the future of conflict is influenced by technological innovation as much as by conventional military might.
This change is not only defensive but also strategic, aiming to establish a balance of power that will deter escalation without interfering with Greece's sovereignty. By integrating high-tech features into a unified defence system, Greece will be able to offset Turkey's technological edge and stabilise the Aegean. Nevertheless, this dynamic also leads to a larger security dilemma because the attempts of each party to increase its security may be viewed as a threat by the other.
The Mediterranean Arc and India’s Strategic Role
The growing involvement of India in the Eastern Mediterranean, which can be thought of as the Mediterranean Arc, is a major extension of its strategic frontiers past the Indo-Pacific. This framework is based on functional collaboration and not formal alliances, and concentrates on maritime security, infrastructure protection, and connectivity. Through its alliance with Greece, Cyprus and Israel, India can expand its influence to a region that is vital to global trade and energy flows 8.
This framework is being operationalized by means of joint exercises and institutional mechanisms, which is indicative of a change in the direction of a more active role in regional security. The involvement of India in maritime activities and investment in the infrastructure projects show that India is interested in ensuring stability and safeguarding its interests in the area. This involvement also strengthens the role of India as a preferred security partner, who can make contributions to world security beyond just its immediate neighbourhood.
On a larger scale, the Mediterranean Arc shows how regional alignments are being restructured according to the shifting geopolitical dynamics. Combining economic and security goals, India can develop a flexible and adaptive approach that would help to increase its impact on the world and contribute to the stability in the region. This strategy shows the changing aspect of international relations where conventional alliances are supplemented with issue-based alliances.
Geoeconomics and the Digital Hinge
The fact that the Eastern Mediterranean is a sort of a digital hinge highlights the increasing significance of infrastructures in the context of geopolitical rivalry, with the ability to control data flows and energy networks becoming a key component of strategic power. The IMEC and subsea cable network projects are an example of how connectivity is being used to redefine trade routes in the world and lessen the reliance on the traditional chokepoints. These are not only economic but also strategic initiatives because they affect the balance of power and the stability of world systems.
The progress of these projects is however complex due to geopolitical tensions especially those relating to maritime boundaries and conflicting claims. The fact that Turkey opposed some of these initiatives is indicative of its overall approach of establishing dominance in the regional dynamics, and the fact that external actors add more dimensions to the situation. Consequently, these projects rely not just on the economic viability but also on the capability to overcome political and security risks.
This convergence of economics and geopolitics underscores the necessity of formulating combined approaches that encompass both aspects at the same time. Incorporating infrastructure development with security concerns, states can become more resilient and make sure that connectivity becomes a stabilising and not a destabilising factor. Here, the Eastern Mediterranean is turning into a crucial experimental field of new geoeconomic competitions.
The Strategic Realignment and Eurasian Triangle
The rise of a New Eurasian Triangle including India, Greece, and Armenia is indicative of a more general process of strategic repositioning in reaction to the Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan axis. This structure is a change to issue-based coalitions which aim to balance regional power relationships by acting as a bloc. The convergence of their interests allows these states to increase their influence and develop new strategies. This repositioning is especially important in terms of the Defence cooperation since the role of India as a provider of military technology to Armenia brings a new aspect of the security issue in the region. India is working towards a balance of power by enhancing the capabilities of Armenia, which makes the strategies of its enemies difficult to calculate. Simultaneously, the process of this alignment with larger systems like the Mediterranean Arc underscores the interrelation of regional processes.
The consequences of this new triangle go beyond direct security issues, as it is part of a wider trend in multipolarity, and the diversification of strategic alliances. Through such alignments, states can navigate an increasingly complex world as they pursue their national interests.
Conclusion
The Eastern Mediterranean is moving into a period of long-term strategic rivalry that is marked by a techno-military arms race, legal rivalry, and changing alliances that all lead to the long-standing security dilemma. The parallel evolution of systems like the Achilles Shield of Greece and the Steel Dome of Turkey indicates a transition to technologically-based deterrence, in which the state of power is not only based on conventional military capabilities, but also the capability to combine and implement new technologies successfully. This is a kind of a feedback loop whereby the more each of the sides tries to improve its security, the more escalation occurs and the higher the chances of making a miscalculation.
Meanwhile, the wider geopolitical picture, influenced by the activities of IMEC and the Mediterranean Arc, brings about new dimensions of complexity, with economic and security-related concerns becoming more interconnected. To India, the region is a strategic frontier to the expansion of its strategic influence whereas to Europe, it is a major node in ensuring connectivity and energy security. The clash of these interests guarantees that the Eastern Mediterranean will continue to be a centre of world rivalry. In the end, the balance of the region will require states to balance these competing dynamics through a blend of deterrence, diplomacy, and institutional innovation. Although the probability of the large-scale conflict is not that high, the continuation of the grey-zone competition and technological advancement implies that the tensions will probably remain at the regional order in the foreseeable future.
References:
1. Aurélien DENIZEAU, “Mavi Vatan, the ‘Blue Homeland’: the Origins, Influences and Limits of an Ambitious Doctrine for Turkey,” Ifri, April 29, 2021, https://www.ifri.org/en/studies/mavi-vatan-blue-homeland-origins-influences-and-limits-ambitious-doctrine-turkey.
2.Enterprise Greece, “India - Greece Strategic Partnership,” n.d., https://www.enterprisegreece.gov.gr/mini-sites/india-greece-strategic-partnership/.
3. Ibid
4. Yordan Gunawan et al., “Greece Militarization in Aegean Island: An International Law Perspective,” Diponegoro Law Review 8 (October 2023): 159–74, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/de0b/36177a0268826acba6f92327da3b83697e3e.pdf.
5. DENIZEAU, “Mavi Vatan, the ‘Blue Homeland’: The Origins, Influences and Limits of an Ambitious Doctrine for Turkey.”
6. Shweta Desai, “Turkey Enters South Asia Conflict Zone With Drones, Diplomacy and Ideological Ambitions,” Newslaundry, May 16, 2025, https://www.newslaundry.com/2025/05/16/turkey-enters-south-asia-conflict-zone-with-drones-diplomacy-and-ideological-ambitions.
7.“Greece Arms Aegean Islands, Threatens Türkiye | Daily Sabah,” Daily Sabah, December 1, 2025, https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/greece-arms-aegean-islands-threatens-turkiye/news/amp.
8.Aditi Thakur and Saaz Lahiri, “Conceptualising a “Mediterranean Arc (a Functional Framework for Maritime Coperation Between India, Greece, Cyprus and Isreal),” National Maritime Foundation, April 10, 2026, https://maritimeindia.org/conceptualising-a-mediterranean-arc-a-functional-framework-for-maritime-cooperation-between-india-greece-cyprus-and-israel/.
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE)
