Security Development in the Indo-Pacific: New Zealand contemplates joining AUKUS

The Aukus agreement is a three-way security partnership formed in September 2021 between the US, the UK, and Australia. Its primary goal is to enhance peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region by addressing common threats such as cyber-attacks, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and maritime security. The members of the alliance plan to establish a new fleet equipped with cutting-edge technologies, including Rolls-Royce reactors produced in the UK. The proposed construction of a nuclear-powered submarine for the Australian and UK navies, known as the SSN-AUKUS, has attracted criticism from China. The submarine will be developed in Britain and Australia based on a British design, incorporating technologies from all three nations. Under the second pillar, the countries have agreed to work together with the three partners in order to co-create a range of advanced technologies. These technologies may include undersea capabilities, quantum computing, and other innovations.

Concerns Around AUKUS

New Zealand's Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, met with high-ranking Chinese officials who expressed concerns about the military alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US. The alliance involves Australia receiving nuclear-powered submarines, which could potentially violate the Treaty of Rarotonga, a pact that designates certain areas of the Pacific as nuclear-free. Mahuta has also expressed concern about the militarization of the Pacific and the need to uphold the Treaty of Rarotonga. In response, Australia has assured New Zealand that it will uphold the treaty.

The recent visit to China by Ms Mahuta marked the initial trip by a New Zealand minister since 2018. During her stay in Beijing, she had meetings with China's top diplomat, Central Foreign Affairs Commission director Wang Yi, and Foreign Affairs Minister Qin Gang. According to Ms Mahuta, the visit was constructive and consistent with the "nature of the bilateral relationship." She further noted that New Zealand has maintained a predictable, respectful stance in its approach to discussing concerns with China.

Pacific nations gathered under the Treaty of Rarotonga to increase diplomatic efforts towards nuclear disarmament, with New Zealand's Minister of Disarmament and Arms Control, Phil Twyford, participating in a virtual meeting of the Treaty's states parties. China strongly opposes the military alliance and has expressed "severe concern and firm opposition." It is unclear whether China has similar concerns regarding the non-nuclear aspects of the alliance.

The opportunity to join pillar one has not been extended to New Zealand, and even if it were, the country would decline due to its stance against nuclear weapons. The country's commitment to being nuclear-free is a legal and moral obligation that cannot be compromised, as stated by Little. In terms of Aukus membership, the focus would be on acquiring the technology necessary to safeguard defence personnel. This typically includes surveillance and radio technologies for domain awareness. Recently, Andrew Little had a meeting with Kurt Campbell, the US national security coordinator for the Indo-Pacific region.

NZ’s interest in AUKUS

Andrew emphasised the importance of upgrading the New Zealand military to align with American and Australian standards before joining Aukus, specifically in communication technology, as some of their equipment is becoming outdated. He also stated that New Zealand's involvement in Aukus would be limited to conventional weaponry due to the country's nuclear-free stance, which is both a legal obligation and a moral commitment.

Additionally, Andrew clarified that New Zealand already collaborates closely with allies and partners who have nuclear-powered vessels, submarines, and nuclear-armed missiles and submarines. Therefore, their participation in Aukus would not alter their current operations.

The AUKUS pact presents an opportunity for New Zealand to enhance its defence capabilities in emerging military technologies, including C4ISR and Underwater Warfare Systems (UWS). These capabilities may be developed and manufactured through cooperation with the AUKUS members, potentially benefiting local suppliers and increasing their participation in domestic programs. Although New Zealand maintains its nuclear-free policy, it is open to collaborating with the AUKUS members in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced information technology, to strengthen regional security and its defence capabilities.

Despite initial concerns regarding nuclear weapons and the possibility of a regional arms race, New Zealand is taking a proactive approach towards addressing regional security challenges and building stronger ties with key allies such as Australia and other global military powers operating in the Indo-Pacific, where territorial and maritime disputes are increasingly destabilizing the region.

The new defence pact includes technology that is related to protecting defence personnel, such as hardware, equipment, surveillance and radio technology. New Zealand has been invited to participate in discussions regarding the use of this technology. However, Little clarified that this technology is separate from the nuclear submarines aspect of the pact.

Authorities in New Zealand noted that deploying technology to support the operation of nuclear submarines, conventional ships, or land-based troops is essential for their deployment and the protection of personnel. This technology would provide protection and awareness for personnel, regardless of their deployment. Besides, New Zealand already works closely with allies and partners who have nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed vessels and submarines. Therefore, the use of such technology does not change the current approach to collaboration and deployment of technology.

Growing Militarization in the Indo-Pacific

The defence forces of New Zealand highlighted the security threat posed by an assertive China, which is becoming increasingly powerful and pursuing its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. According to a 2021 defence assessment report, the growing strategic competition between China, the United States, and other powers will increase the potential for confrontation and conflict in the region. Additionally, strategic competition will occur in arenas ranging from space to cyberspace, posing a threat to New Zealand's security, even in the absence of open conflict. New Zealand's largest trading partner is China.

In a speech given at the Indo-Pacific 22 expo in Sydney last year, the Chief of Navy emphasized the importance of the rules-based system to New Zealand's security. RADM Proctor noted that the intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, along with existing regional tensions, is increasing the potential for confrontation. He further stated that this growing competition will challenge the formal institution of the rules-based international system, which has traditionally been charged with peace and security issues. Additionally, RADM Proctor cautioned that climate change impacts could potentially threaten the security and viability of some countries. Finally, he highlighted the role of the Royal New Zealand Navy in supporting the security and stability of individual Pacific Island countries and the region as a whole.

Conclusion

New Zealand has a longstanding policy of maintaining an independent foreign policy and has expressed concerns about the implications of the AUKUS alliance for regional security and stability. Ultimately, any decision to join AUKUS will depend on a complex set of political, strategic, and economic factors, and it is impossible to predict with certainty what will happen in the future. the country's military will need significant investment to meet new challenges and greater expectations from regional partners. The current geostrategic situation in the Pacific means that New Zealand's partners and neighbours will likely expect more from them in the long term. Joining AUKUS could signify an improvement in the relationship between New Zealand and the United States, although they are not official allies. Moreover, it is crucial to ensure that the defence force is capable of working with its Australian counterparts, regardless of New Zealand's decision on engaging with AUKUS.

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Pic Courtesy-Pankaj Jha

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)