Understanding Chinese tactical moves in South China Sea

To support its dominance in these contested waters and beyond, Chinese navy (PLAN) surface fleet now comprises of two aircraft carriers, one large cruiser, more than two and half dozen destroyers, about 50 frigates, 37 coastal combat ships known as corvettes, and more than 80 missile attack crafts. China’s submarine fleet have six nuclear powered attack submarines, 46 diesel-powered attack submarines, and four ballistic missile submarines. Even China’s Coast Guard now boasts of more than 250 coastal patrol ships.

The Chinese maritime militia better known as People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) is stated to have more than 1500 medium sized boats which have been used to earmark the protected fishing zones and venture out into illegal fishing with areas such as Natuna islands, and EEZ of other ASEAN claimant countries duly supported by Chinese coastguard or navy ships. It has upgraded its naval capacities in April 2021 by procuring a destroyer, aircraft carrier, a nuclear submarine, and by 2025, the PLAN is predicted to field as many as 400 vessels. It recently commissioned a new ballistic missile submarine [Jin-class (Type 094A)], destroyer Renhai-class (Type 055), and amphibious assault ship Yushen-class (Type 075). It has also been using unmanned submersibles to map the ocean floor including in areas near Andaman and Nicobar Islands, as well as in Indonesian waters.

While China has undertaken environmentally damaging construction of artificial islands, it has been upgrading its facilities in South China Sea. Beijing has deployed military equipment, radars, anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), surface to air missiles with a range of over 200 kilometres on few of the artificial island bases. It has developed underground ammunition storage facilities, concrete hangars for fighter aircrafts (even landed few on those islands), extended runaways for operation of maritime surveillance aircrafts and has deployed advanced sensors and sonars. Beijing has been conducting anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) tests near the disputed Spratly islands. China has been conducting dredging operations since 2013, and by deepening shores for docking it has improved berthing of larger ships.

It has upgraded its resupply and maintenance and has developed centralised command and control centres to undertake intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. This dredging which is taking place for the last more than eight years has created more than 3,200 acres of new land in the Spratlys and Paracels islands. It has extended and improved infrastructure including runways and control towers on Fiery, Mischief, and Subi reefs. It was reported that on Woody Island (which is largest island in SCS, and lies in Paracels islands group), it has extended runway to accommodate heavy military aircraft. It has deployed (on a rotational basis) HQ-9 missile defence batteries at Woody Island.

Apart from developing these man-made islands, it has been coercing other ASEAN claimant states to not to fish in the waters adjoining those islands and even in regular fishing zones. Chinese pressure on fishing vessels from the Philippines in waters that are at the centre of a territorial dispute.

Chinese swarming of more than 200 fishing boats in mid-March at Whitsun Reef is adopting tactic to outline its areas of influence and control. Given the fact that much of the media attention has been to Myanmar, and other geopolitical developments, the response has very calculated. There have been strong statements from White house and many ASEAN members but in terms of coercing China  not to disturb peace and tranquillity in the region has not been addressed cogently-both in diplomatic and political terms. While there has been much talk about salami slicing undertaken by China, but this use of Chinese maritime militia is disturbing and showcases that China wants to completely obliterate any impact whatsoever of the PCA verdict which came in 2016 which invalidated that all Chinese claims as ‘null and void’.

Owing to the recurrent groups sails and the deployment of US aircraft carriers-USS Roosevelt, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Nimitz, and advanced destroyers in the past; China is looking into the possible response time. It is playing the game of brinkmanship which is just short enough for any military confrontation with the US. This tactic it is adopting to investigate possible political and military responses. While military responses have been constrained, and political responses also are on the similar lines. Chinese tactics has defined that it wants to control the SCS region and protect its first island chain which has nodes starting from Kurile Islands, Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, and northern Philippines ending at the tip of Borneo.

The current developments at Whitsun reef which a ‘V shaped island’ would provide a unique launching board for any maritime activities in the region. It seems that China is defining the limits of its maritime zone which includes Vanguard Bank, Reed bank and Whitsun reef. Major countries such as the UK, Japan, Germany, France, and ASEAN dialogue partner countries should increase their active participation in the East Sea issue to create a peaceful and prosperous environment in the region and ensure the interests of the claimants. Given the fact that India has joined as a non-permanent UN Security Council (UNSC) along with other major countries need to highlight the issues and cooperate more effectively to resolve emerging issues in the South China Sea through consultations and early adoption of the Code of Conduct.

Pic Courtesy- Vietnam News Agency

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)