An Analytical Overview On ‘AUKUS’
The geopolitical centre of gravity is gradually shifting from the Atlantic towards the Pacific Ocean. The recent development that Australia will deploy nuclear-powered submarines in the Pacific region with the help of the United Kingdom and the United States testifies that the Pacific is the new theatre of action. The strategic power of a country is now shifting from territorial space to the seas. Naval powers are again gaining dominance in the global geopolitical space. The older alliances as well as the new alliances are gradually shifting their position towards the seas. The new Sino-US polarisation which is gaining dominance is also focusing on strategic control over the sea routes, trade and resources.
US President, Joe Biden along with the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom and Australia announced a new military alliance called AUKUS, an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and the United States. As per the official statements, “AUKUS aims to update and enhance the shared ability to take on the threats of 21st century”.[1] Since its announcement, AUKUS is being called the most significant security arrangement since World War II. Until now, the UK was the only country that had access to this technology developed by the US.
With the development and deployment of nuclear-powered submarines in the Pacific region, the arrangement has the potential of changing the entire dynamics of the region. This is for the first time that the US is set to transfer its nuclear technology to any other country except the UK. Through the arrangement, Australia would be armed with eight nuclear-powered submarines. The project would be funded by Australia whereas the technology would be shared by the US which would build these submarines with the UK.
Nuclear-powered submarines are not the same as nuclear weaponed submarines. The former is a submarine where a propulsion system runs using nuclear power, which is also termed as Submersible Ship Nuclear (SSN). The access to nuclear-powered technology puts Australia into an elite club. The acquisition and procurement of nuclear technology are strategic as nuclear powered submarines are harder to detect, faster, and has the capability of staying submerged for longer periods. These submarines are capable of carrying more missiles and can hit targets far away. These submarines do not need to be refuelled for longer time duration and are powered by the nuclear reactor present on board. Whereas the more common diesel-electric submarines have to keep surfacing to snorkel in order to fulfil the oxygen demand. This is precisely the reason that makes nuclear-powered submarines more technologically sound and safe.
The new trilateral grouping largely differs from the other existing regional and multilateral groups of the region as it is very specific in its objective which is to enable Australia to build the nuclear-powered submarine. The three partner countries of AUKUS are natural allies and are members of many other global as well as regional organisations. The ‘Five Eyes Alliance’ is one such organisation where all the five-member countries including the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand share all their intelligence information. Australia and UK are also part of the US security alliance.
The need and the specific purpose of this alliance have raised certain questions in the geopolitical arena. The US is already having individual security treaties with many countries in the Indo-Pacific region like Japan, South Korea and Australia. Australia, New Zealand and the US also have a security alliance called ‘ANZAC’ which was formed during World War I.
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is one of the world’s largest in the world and owns the maximum number of ships. The Chinese missile force is tremendous with all short, medium and large range missiles at its exposure. With the increasing presence of China in the region, it is not very difficult for the Chinese to guard its sea routes and control the waters. Therefore, the most feasible alternative for any other power to make any sort of presence in the region and protect its resources is through a submarine. The grouping has not explicitly mentioned the Chinese factor in any of the official statements but the implicit objective is very much specific in nature.
The Chinese maritime territorial claims over the islands of Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and other neighbouring countries in the region has been a major concern in the region. The South China Sea is the major area of opportunity for the Chinese as the majority of shipment passes through this region. The ‘Strait of Malacca’ and ‘Taiwan Strait’ are the two chokepoints that can easily be classified as Chinese vulnerabilities. Both these straits are narrow and can be blocked by the Chinese adversaries in case of any conflict. This vulnerability factor has made Beijing cautious about the increasing presence of other powers in the region. This is the major reason for Beijing’s suspicion over the Quad and now with AUKUS.
The new trilateral arrangement is not only a concern for the Chinese but has created differences between the NATO members, mainly by France. With this partnership, the ongoing negotiations between France and Australia for the development of diesel-electric submarines have got cancelled. The project was supposed to be a $60 billion deal between the two nations and has suddenly been called off by the Australians.
The French President has reached out to India for the prospects of increasing their influence in the Indo-Pacific region. France has also assured India that it will technically assist India in the development of its industrial base. The AUKUS deal has pushed France closer to India which can be seen as its spill-over effect. This has opened a new area of collaboration and growth in the bilateral relations of India and France.[2]
Another major reason for the equivocal concern by the European countries is due to the importance being given to the UK by the US at the global stage. The European Union is seeing this as a shift in the UK’s participation in strategic affairs after the ‘post-Brexit’. The UK is now not restricted to make such decisions after the deliberation with other European countries. This is also seen as the entry of Britain back into global affairs.
New Zealand has maintained its strong stance towards its anti-nuclear policy and has clearly stated that it would oppose the presence of nuclear-powered vessels or nuclear-armed vessels in its waters. Apart from the nuclear issue, Wellington does not want to openly take any sides between Beijing and Washington. It has always tried to maintain the balance between both the powers and has maintained a similar stance concerning AUKUS.
The ASEAN nations have also expressed concerns over the AUKUS. The regional stakeholders believe that this could lead to an arms race. The Southeast Asian nations believe that the framework can hamper regional peace and neutrality. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob stated that AUKUS can “provoke other powers to act more aggressively in the region, especially in the South China Sea.”[3] The nations in the Indo-Pacific have time and again reiterated that they hold the right to maintain neutrality with various powers. The nations want to maintain the balance with both the US and China in order to reap the economic benefits. The regional nations believe that this will give rise to more disputes and challenges which will eventually force the countries to take sides.
India largely remains unaffected by this newly found alliance. Though a number of analysts from the strategic community have opined that AUKUS has undermined India’s status as a net security provider in the region, this may not be the case. It is important to understand that India’s status in the Indo-Pacific cannot be diminished so easily by forming a trilateral alliance that would reap fruits after two more decades. India’s naval might paired with its soft power initiatives have made India an undisputed leader of the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, this development has opened the doors for India to engage with the US to work out a lease agreement for the American nuclear-powered submarines in the same way it did with Russia.
It seems that the formation of AUKUS has strategically ambushed QUAD and is taking over as the new player in the Indo-Pacific. After analysing the operational dimensions of both AUKUS and QUAD, one would understand that the end games of AUKUS and QUAD are very different from each other. Both the alliances operate in two parallel dimensions which do not collide with each other. AUKUS has a single and direct objective i.e., to load nuclear-powered submarines into Australia’s arsenal whereas QUAD’s operational range is very large which includes an amalgam of soft and hard power initiatives. It is very unlikely that AUKUS will, in any way, hinder the growth of QUAD.
Conclusion:
Australia like Japan, New Zealand and other powers have also given up nuclear weapons and is also a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It is precisely due to this reason that Australia does not have any nuclear industry and is also not involved in the generation of fissile material. The AUKUS framework would enable Australia to access nuclear-propelled submarines. The exception that the US has made with respect to Australia is already being questioned. The Australian concerns in the Indo-Pacific region resonate with its other allies and this is largely the reason for the exception. The Chinese has already this concern and stated that “it is highly responsible to show double standards on using nuclear export for geopolitical gains”.[4]
It is quite evident from the recent developments that the formation of AUKUS has created rifts among the NATO countries. Though this is a seismic event in the geopolitical construct of the Indo-Pacific, it does not have the necessary firepower to realign the strategic cards of the region. This is largely because the AUKUS countries were having a deep strategic relationship even before the formation of AUKUS. In a nutshell, it can be said that AUKUS is not destined to be a game-changer for the security apparatus in the Indo-Pacific. The recent differences between France and the AUKUS countries completely outweigh the aims of these trilateral security arrangements. A serious and careful deliberation should be done by the AUKUS countries in order to solve their differences with France.
Notes
[1] Remarks by President Biden, Prime Minister Morrison of Australia, and Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom Announcing the Creation of AUKUS, “The White House”, 15 September 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/15/remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-morrison-of-australia-and-prime-minister-johnson-of-the-united-kingdom-announcing-the-creation-of-aukus/
[2] T. Brajesh, “Post AUKUS, France looks to India as Indo-Pacific ally”, The Sunday Guardian, December 18, 2021, https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/post-aukus-france-looks-india-indo-pacific-ally
[3] Malaysia warns new Indo-Pacific pact may trigger nuclear arms race, Reuters, September 18, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-warns-new-indo-pacific-pact-may-trigger-nuclear-arms-race-2021-09-18/
[4] https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1438459566862176256?lang=en
Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
