Decoding China’s Peace Plan for Ukraine

Much has been said and speculated about China's position on the Ukrainian conflict. China has consistently declined to denounce Russia's military aggressiveness, blaming NATO's (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) buildup as a primary cause of the war. At the same time, it has consistently advocated for peace and even volunteered to assist in mediating a resolution between Ukraine and Russia. A year after this ruthless invasion and bombardment, China — Moscow’s pivotal partner — has taken an unusual problem-solving approach to this European crisis and released a 12-points position paper to end the conflict in Ukraine. China, which has a "comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation for a new era," has taken a relatively moderate stance on the issue, and the nature and logic of its approach are still being debated throughout the world.

The Initial Chinese Position on Russo-Ukraine War

China's approach to the crisis has been unwavering but marked by dubious rhetoric and restrained action. China has refrained from labelling Russia's activities in Ukraine as an intrusion, in addition to blaming Moscow for the war. Moscow has attempted to refute Western claims that Russia had previously briefed China about its military activities during the preliminary stages. Instead, China has emphasised the crisis's "complicated backdrop," urging "restraint" from "all parties," and requesting a peaceful political settlement through diplomatic dialogue. China also defined its stance as founded on the tenets of the UN Charter, reviewed with a "neutral and unbiased attitude" on the premise of the "merits of the situation".

When analysing Beijing's stance on the Ukraine conflict, it is crucial to understand that it sees Russia as a pivotal strategic partner in its attempt to contest the hegemony of the United States and its allies—a quest China intends to continue in order to achieve its goal of establishing a "great contemporary socialist country" by the centennial of the People's Republic of China in 2049. As a consequence, China has refused to vote against Russia on any resolution in the United Nations, the exception being the case in the General Assembly when the resolution held the suspension of Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council, which Beijing voted against.

The attribution of the US-led West as the chief instigator of a long-stretched dilemma that has resulted in this present catastrophe is perhaps the most crucial component of China's perspective. Although China's attitude to the Ukraine-Russia bilateral component is ambiguous and balanced, its understanding of the conflict from a broader perspective is unequivocal. Wang Yi, China's State Councilor and Foreign Minister, has invoked the Chinese adage "It takes more than one chilly day to freeze three feet of ice" to convey the notion that the war is an unavoidable result of escalating tensions.

China’s Peace Plan

China has taken a huge stride towards the centre stage in world affairs with its 12-point plan to end the crisis in Ukraine. It has hitherto eschewed the dangers and obligations that come with taking the lead on foreign policy issues that aren't directly related to China's national security. Xi Jinping is poised to demonstrate his country's clout in inventive directions now that he has cemented tremendous authority at home. Direct engagement in Russia's assault on Ukraine, on the other hand, is loaded with danger for China, its ties with America and Europe, and the world at large.

The effort comes amid a Chinese influence drive aimed at alienating the United States and Europe, both of which have responded ambivalently. Furthermore, by playing mediator, China hopes to improve its image with the Global South, which, as observed by the last week's United Nations resolution, has been essentially neutral on Russia's conflict. Whatever of reasons, China can understand that ending the conflict is in its own best interests.

The plan asks for official respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, safeguards for Ukrainian citizens, a cessation of intervention with the flow of humanitarian assistance into the territory, and denunciation of the potential use of nuclear weapons. The proposal also represents the views of people throughout the world whose major interest in the war is economic, by asking for a ceasefire, the elimination of sanctions, and the start of peace negotiations, which might help reduce strain on food and fuel prices.

So, what else does China think its strategy will accomplish? It may position China as a global peacemaker by providing a model that the majority of the globe can support. Though developing nations across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East ponder Putin's motives, they are more directly harmed by the West's insistence that this war is the most pressing priority in a world beleaguered by global crises such as slow fiscal stimulus from the pandemic, rising food and fuel prices, unsustainably high developing-world debt, refugees, and environmental degradation.

The Response to the Peace Plan

Despite Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's promise to reflect on the plan, it has a poor prognosis of being implemented because it does not entail Russia's occupying force to exit Ukraine, does not guarantee the recovery of Ukrainian land now annexed by Russian forces, and offers no tangible assistance for the country's regeneration. A quick ceasefire would effectively freeze Russian advances, requiring Ukraine to exert pressure on Vladimir Putin to willingly relinquish territory. At this point in the war, no peace offer is likely to work since neither the Russian nor Ukrainian administrations can afford to suffer defeat.

On Monday, the Kremlin slammed China's peace plan for the Ukrainian conflict, arguing that now is not the time to explore such a proposal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Moscow Times that for the time being, Russia does not see any of the factors that are required to put this entire conflict to a conclusion. The Russian Foreign Ministry praised China for the fresh proposal on Friday but stressed that any peace accord would have to respect "new geographical realities" in Ukraine.

China's "Policy Statement for a Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Conflict" comes into play a little too late. It consists of 12 principles, several of which are hollow platitudes, beginning with "Respecting all countries' sovereignty." Allowing Belarus' dictator, Alexander Lukashenko — a Putin supporter and backup military base — to convene in Beijing doesn't help China's cause either. The document reiterates China's rhetoric of "abandoning Cold War thinking" and demands the termination of Western sanctions against Russia. Consequently, in an interview with ABC News, President Biden rejected China's plan as "primarily helping Russia."

Furthermore, despite Beijing's denial of the claim, Western powers persist to warn that China may be considering sending weapons to Russia. Clear charges from senior US authorities that China is contemplating the plan suggest that Washington is keeping a close eye on the situation and that major consequences will follow if Beijing proceeds. As a result, China is unlikely to give Russia arms or ammunition, but it certainly believes that the threat alone would compel NATO forces to negotiate with Ukraine.

Conclusion

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cost China both its prestige and its economy. Moscow's invasion violated Beijing's key foreign policy precepts of regard for sovereignty and non-interference. Yet the war's effect on the globe's economy has cost China; because China holds almost one-third of developing economies' debt, the chances of default have grown, adding to China's own debt issues. Furthermore, fears about escalation and likely Russian deployment of tactical nuclear weapons contribute to explaining why China wants the war to finish and Russia's President Putin wants to avoid utter loss.

China advocates for "ceasing hostilities" and resumption of peace negotiations, claiming that dialogue and discussion are the only feasible answer. Such appeals resemble similar ones made by India and Turkey in recent months. Nevertheless, with no clear plan of action or foundation for negotiations, China is hesitant to invest any political clout in this war.

To Beijing's credit, the paper declares China's opposition to the threats or use of nuclear weapons, in addition to its support for the safeguarding of Ukraine's nuclear power stations. Importantly, Beijing has also called for post-conflict reconstruction and has stated that China stands ready to participate. However, the Russia-Ukraine war is at an impasse after a year and would need more than a peace plan to end the war. It requires both leaders involved in the conflict to prepare a concrete, actionable plan and willingness to negotiate for the war to come to a decisive conclusion.

References

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Bremmer, I. (2023, March 2). China’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Could Have Dangerous Consequences. Retrieved March 3, 2023, from Time website: https://time.com/6259621/china-ukraine-war-peace-plan-consequences/

Edward, F. (2023). Why China’s peace plan on Ukraine should be welcomed - Global Times. Retrieved March 3, 2023, from www.globaltimes.cn website: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1286595.shtml

Haltiwanger, J. (2023, February 28). Russia shoots down China’s peace plan for the Ukraine war as Beijing becomes more entangled in the conflict a year into the fighting. Retrieved March 3, 2023, from Business Insider website: https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/russia-shoots-down-chinas-peace-plan-for-the-ukraine-war-as-beijing-becomes-more-entangled-in-the-conflict-a-year-into-the-fighting/articleshow/98284755.cms

McCarthy, N. G. (2023, February 24). China calls for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire as claims to neutrality questioned. Retrieved from CNN website: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/23/china/china-position-political-settlement-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

Robert A. Manning, opinion contributor. (2023, February 28). What to make of China’s “Peace Plan” for Ukraine. Retrieved March 3, 2023, from The Hill website: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3875996-what-to-make-of-chinas-peace-plan-for-ukraine/

V, A. (2022, June 12). Where does China stand on the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Retrieved from frontline.thehindu.com website: https://frontline.thehindu.com/world-affairs/decoding-china-stance-on-russia-ukraine-conflict/article65510759.ece

Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)