India–Armenia Defence Cooperation: Strategic Signalling, Arms Transfers, and Regional Implications
A lot has changed in the South Caucasus after the outbreak of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the subsequent takeover of the territory by Azerbaijan. From being a mere territorial dispute, the conflict has attracted extra-regional players in this geopolitical fiasco. Often a contest between Russia and the Western powers, the conflict has now been more “Asianized,” particularly after the entry of New Delhi in 2020. This rare move by New Delhi is motivated by both its defense and strategic options that the South Caucasus has opened to it. Interestingly, the success of this “great leap forward” will be judged upon the stabilisation and the impact it brings to the region. This article will review the dispute and the strategic role played by New Delhi.
Decline of Armenia’s Security Architecture
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in dispute over territorial claims over the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the 1990s. Armenia has relied on Russia as its security guarantor against the forces of Azerbaijan, which enjoys both diplomatic and military support from Turkiye and Pakistan. As part of its security arrangement with Russia, it is a signatory to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and along with the presence of the Russian 102nd Military Base in Gyumri. However, it is pertinent to note that during the conflict in 2020, the Russian inaction against the Azerbaijani aggression and incursions into the sovereign territory of Armenia showed the hollowness and the failure of these security arrangements. This led to dissatisfaction among the Armenian faction, with Yerevan ceasing its financial contributions and suspending its membership with the Soviet-style military alliance. Alen Simonyan, the speaker of the Armenian Parliament, termed the alliance “a gun that does not shoot”. This prompted Armenia to look beyond its traditional policy of security measures and to formulate a rather multilateral foreign policy for strategic engagements.
Azerbaijan-Turkiye-Pakistan Entente
With vulnerable Armenia at its weakest, Azerbaijan, its arch-rival, had turned adversity into dominance. Baku has brought in Turkiye, its longtime ally, and Pakistan into its camp. The Shushi Declaration of 2022 had formalised mutual defense guarantees and the direct involvement of Turkish military advisors in the region, along with the procurement of the Bayraktar TB2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which proved decisive in the capture of Artsakh. Pakistan, on the other hand, has provided Baku with JF-17C Block-III, numbering 40 in a defense deal worth US$1.6 billion. Apart from military supply, this “Three Brothers” alignment has also supported each other on the sensitive international issues of their concern. Turkiye and Azerbaijan have officially supported Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir issue, and Pakistan reciprocally supports Turkiye on its claims against Cyprus. This brotherhood was a talking point in the region after their armed forces marched together in Baku during the victory day parade in 2020. It has surprisingly come to India since both Azerbaijan and Turkiye consider Indian-administered Kashmir to be of illegal occupation, and also staunchly oppose the abrogation of Article 370.
Threat of Turkish Weaponry
Turkish weapons have proved to be of critical advantage to Baku’s incursions in the territory and spurring heavy losses on Armenia. Notable is the Bayraktar TB2, a medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial combat vehicle capable of both manual and autonomous flight operations and used effectively by Ankara during operations in Libya and Syria. Along with the MAM-L-type laser-guided bombs, which these UAVs carried, also played a leading role in the Nagorno-Karabakh War. In addition to these, Azerbaijan purchased many different types of surveillance and kamikaze drones (loitering munitions) designed and produced by Israel.
New Duo: Armenia-India
India finds Armenia engulfed in the same situation as it has faced against China and Pakistan: two warring neighbours in alignment and a territorial dispute. In Armenia, New Delhi saw three emerging opportunities: firstly, supporting Armenia’s cause to counter the “Three-Brothers Alignment” and its stance on the Kashmir Agenda; secondly, with Russian security measures out of the talk, New Delhi can fill the vacuum by supplying its state-of-the-art high-end military hardware to boost its defense exports; and thirdly, regional stability is a prerequisite for the functioning of the INST Corridor, as Yerevan’s stability can act as India’s gateway to Eurasian and Russian markets.
Analysis of Arms Transfer
With its limited capital budget for defense, and to seek a reliable security partner, Armenia turned towards India. This step has two-fold objectives; firstly, Indian weapons systems are time tested and experienced in almost the same terrain that both the nations share; and secondly, Yerevan needed a new trustful ally to counter the influence of the “Three Brothers Alliance.” Therefore, it initiated defense acquisition contracts with New Delhi, and further supported India’s stance on the Kashmir issue internationally.
The defense cooperation forged between New Delhi and Yerevan is a comprehensive one, encompassing artillery, anti-drone capabilities and aerial interception systems. The estimated value of current and forthcoming contracts ranges between US$1 billion and US$2 billion.
One of the prominent transfers is the procurement of four batteries of Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) system, totalling 24 launchers each carrying 12 rockets and mounted on Czech made Tatra trucks. Developed by indigenous DRDO, it is often compared to American HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) for its precision and mobility with a striking fire range of up to 75 km. The transfer also includes 15 Akash-1S surface-to-air missile launchers along with around 400 missiles under a deal estimated at about $720 million. It is an air defense system designed to intercept fighter aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones at altitudes of up to 18 km and at ranges of up to 35 km.
Another significant transfer is the supply of four ‘Swathi’ weapon-locating radar systems, jointly produced by the DRDO and Bharat Electronics for a $40 million deal. It is capable of scanning a 50 km radius and can track multiple projectiles simultaneously fired by different weapons and direct counter-battery fire against enemy ordinance. Operational in high-altitude conflict zones and is considered superior to systems provided by Russia and Poland.
Among other transfers include Multi-terrain Artillery Guns (MArG), 155mm/39 caliber self-propelled howitzers, Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS), towed 155mm/52 caliber howitzers, ZEN anti-drone systems, and Konkurs anti-tank missiles, mortars and various ammunition such as small arms cartridges and 30-40 mm grenades.
The partnership is moving toward high-end aerospace cooperation. Armenia is reportedly finalizing a US$3 billion deal for procurement of 8 to 12 Su-30MKI multi-role fighters. India, which operates a massive fleet of these aircraft, may also upgrade Armenia’s existing Su-30SM fleet with modern Indian avionics and Astra Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles. Furthermore, discussions are underway for the licensed assembly of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles in Armenia.
Countering Alliances
Armenia, like wisely, has forged alliances with not just India, but also with Iran indicating a shift from traditional alignment towards a strategic shared-interest based alignment. Iran has a minority Azeri-speaking state that shares a border with Azerbaijan, and the growing Turkish influence in the region, supplemented by Israel's support to Baku has prompted Tehran to form a strategic alliance with Armenia and India. A trilateral meeting between India, Iran and Armenia concluded last year showed the willingness on all three sides to cooperate on shared interests and stability in the South Caucasus. In a comparable framework, Yerevan has joined hands with Greece and Cyprus and equally bolster their claim against Turkish aggressions. Both Greece and Cyprus have indicated their interest to use the Indian-made Brahmos supersonic cruise missile and the Long-Range Land Attack Cruise Missile (LR-LACM) engineered to evade Turkey’s S-400 missile defense system. The move is not only seen as a direct challenge to Turkey’s ambitious “Blue Homeland” doctrine but also signals a willingness to enter zones that have, until now, been dominated by Western or regional powers alone.
Conclusion
The defense partnership between New Delhi and Yerevan depicts a landmark change in the geopolitical landscape of South Caucasus. The arms transfer not only allows India to export its high-end military hardware, increase “Make in India” defense exports but also by arming Armenia it yearns to counter Pakistan-backed entente and foster its national interests. Thus, this cooperation has provided India with a major foothold in the South Caucasus and becoming a major player in regional geopolitics.
However, New Delhi should tread cautiously when venturing outside its strategic sphere. It should not act as a permanent security guarantor to Armenia and directly delve in the conflict as the likelihood of renewed conflict is high due to the power imbalance in favor of Baku and its maximalist demands, which include amendments to the Armenian constitution, a clause declaring “Karabakh is part of Armenia. Furthermore, the introduction of the "Trump Route" (TRIPP), a 2025 U.S. proposal for a land connection under American management, adds another layer of complexity. How this partnership performs will test India’s ambitions to project itself as a global defense exporter and a pillar of regional stability.
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE)
