Strategic implications of the new ‘Quad’

In dangerous and unpredictable places like the Middle East, India has kept a strategic distance from geopolitical alliances. Rather than forming multilateral alliances, it has focused its foreign policy on minor bilateral transactions, such as increasing trade, recruiting investment, and identifying areas for mutual capacity building with specific countries. It was a policy designed to help India navigate global geopolitical schisms by avoiding participation in warring blocs. India, on the other hand, had little impact or presence in key geopolitical crises because it chose to stay out of them. In contrast, the four-nation meeting implies that India is now ready to move away from bilateral silos and toward a regional policy that is more linked. The Greater Middle East, like the Indo-Pacific, aims to change India's perspective of the west and increase its engagement with new western neighbours. Islamabad's expanding links with Istanbul, as well as its claims to historical ties with Gulf countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are driving forces behind the development of the new alliance.

As a result of the new grouping, India may be able to upgrade its current bilateral ties with Israel and the United Arab Emirates to more dynamic and synergetic multilateral connections. While Israel is India's most important defence ally, the UAE is one of the country's largest oil exporters and employs millions of Indians. This cooperation is crucial since India is revamping its defence system and the globe is experiencing a major energy crisis. Furthermore, as the US and India become closer on a variety of topics, such as maritime security, defence cooperation, and an overall anti-China collaboration, India appears to be the best choice to take on a larger role in the West Asian theatre.

President Biden's administration appears eager to continue its predecessors' efforts in West Asia. The long and unstable history of Middle East volatility and friction made strategic cooperation difficult. Like its Indo-Pacific counterpart quadrilateral forum, the US-India-Israel-UAE alliance claims to have a minimum-security agenda and is not interested in discussing overt military agreements. While China deepens connections with the United Arab Emirates and Israel, the United States strives to delegitimize Beijing's presence in the area by military, diplomatic, and economic means. Beijing's regional dominance is a cause of concern, despite ancient and long-standing connections with Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.

The UAE's foreign policy aims to protect the status quo at home while keeping control in the hands of the royal family. The United Arab Emirates has made it a priority to combat any party or country that threatens this goal, the most visible of which being the Muslim Brotherhood, which has publicly stated its desire for Islamic control throughout the Arab world. Both of these factors have driven the UAE to maintain a tight relationship with the United States as a long-term buyer of its oil and a guarantor of regional security. Abu Dhabi's decision to sign the Abraham Accords with Israel was influenced by the same concerns. enable the UAE to broaden its international alliances The UAE, the US, and Israel had already met as a trilateral following the signing of the Abraham Accords, which is an important element to emphasise regarding the four-nation summit.

Normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council, who are India's major commercial partners, will be a powerful engine for Israel to get access to markets and industries that it previously lacked. Much of the joy over India-Israel relations has yet to bear fruit, save from defence, which remains transactional. From Israel's standpoint, the Abraham Accords' international dimension is a welcome addition to what is fundamentally a regional deal. Apart from trade and economics, the rapid advancements in India–Israel relations, particularly under Netanyahu and Modi, are accompanied by a heated ideological conflict. This is where a schism between Israel's perception of the Abraham Accords' strategic function and India's perception of its connections with the region could emerge.

"It is arguably too early to label the new minilaterals with the US, UAE, and Israel the 'new Quad' for the Middle East," writes Indian expert C. Raja Mohan. It will take some time for this grouping to find its footing and evolve." While it is too early to judge the grouping's strategic significance, there are several areas where it could deepen ties, including as trade, energy cooperation, climate change mitigation, and boosting maritime security. India must avoid being entangled in the numerous West Asian problems that are expected to intensify as regional rivalries deepen. India is suffering increased instability in continental Asia as a result of the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan. As a result, maintaining a positive relationship with Iran while also pursuing increased regional engagement with the US-Israel-UAE coalition is a difficult issue for India. The emergence of this 'new Quad' is a positive development for India, giving immediate political and economic gains as well as the potential for long-term strategic advantages if some of the essential pieces fall into place.

References

1.       The New US-Israel-UAE-India Minilateral in a Changing West Asia | ORF: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/

2.     The new ‘Quad’ gives significant impetus to India’s prominence in West Asia: https://theprint.in/campus-voice/the-new-quad-gives-significant-impetus-to-indias-prominence-in-west-asia/760622/

3.      C Raja Mohan writes: India and the new ‘Quad’ in West Asia: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-and-the-new-quad-in-west-asia-7578842/

4.     There’s a New Quad in Town: India, Israel, US, UAE – The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/theres-a-new-quad-in-town/

5.     Explained: Is 'New Quad' Of India, US, UAE, Israel Aimed At Addressing The Dragon At The Table?: https://www.news18.com/news/explainers/explained-is-new-quad-of-india-us-uae-israel-aimed-at-addressing-the-dragon-at-the-table-4344041.html

6.     India forms new 'quad' with UAE, US & Israel: What is it? How will it counter China?: https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/india-forms-new-quad-with-uae-us-and-israel-what-is-it-how-will-it-counter-china.html

7.     Foreign Hand | A very different quad - Hindustan Times: https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/foreign-hand-a-very-different-quad-101635144064768.html

8.     India, UAE, US and Israel 'West Asian Quad' meet in next few weeks: EAM Jaishankar, India News News | wionews.com: https://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-uae-us-and-israel-west-asian-quad-meet-in-next-few-weeks-eam-jaishankar-429130

9.     The other Quad: On virtual meet of Foreign Ministers of India, US, Israel and UAE - The Hindu: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-other-quad-on-virtual-meet-of-foreign-ministers-of-india-us-israel-and-uae/article37079666.ece

Pic Courtesy-Ziad Al Halabi at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)