As per 2012 data, recorded by the National Research Institute of Population and Social Security, shows that Japan will shrink by about one million each year for the coming decades so that by 2110 Japan will have a population of 42 million over 65 Years. Currently, 20% of the population is 65 years of age or older. Hence, Japan is becoming a country for older men and women. A birth rate of 2.1 is required to sustain a country's growth, while Japan's birth rate is around 1.4.[1]

“Demography is the statistical study of human populations, Demographers use census data, surveys, and statistical models to analyze the size, movement, and structure of populations.”[2] Japan is facing one of the worst demographic crises, Japan's 2020 census recorded a population decline of 800,000 people, a year later the percentage of its population under age 14 had fallen to its lowest level ever - just 11 per cent.

Japan's people are living longer at a rate that is unexpected by the world. Japan has the largest percentage of old people of any country on the planet. Both rural and urban sections of the country are experiencing a "super-aging" society.[3] On a macro level, Japan' quandary is prosperity, that is often followed by lower fertility rates and better lifespan. "At 83.4 years, Japan has the longest life expectancy at birth in the world, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)."[4]

After WWII, rapid decreases in mortality and fertility increased population ageing in Japan. Japan’s estimated child population has hit a record low after falling for 40 straight years, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications The number of children age 14 or younger stood at 14.93 million as of April 1, about 190,000 fewer than a year earlier and the lowest value among comparable data available since 1950. “The proportion of children in the total population also fell to its lowest level of 11.9% after 47 consecutive years of decline.”[5] “Japan has the lowest such ratio among the 33 countries with a population of over 40 million, below South Korea’s 12.2% and Italy’s 13.3%, according to the United Nations Demographic Yearbook.”[6] The ministry aforementioned there have been 7.65 million boys and 7.28 million girls. youngsters age up to 2 accounted for 2.65 million of the total, comparatively under different age brackets and reflecting a decline within the number of births, the ministry said. the child population in Japan peaked in 1954 at 29.89 million. It concisely picked up round the early Nineteen Seventies however has to continue to fall since 1982.[7]

Images source: “Statistics Dashboard, Government of Japan, Data for 2020 and 2045 are projections.” [i]

Available at https://dashboard.e-stat.go.jp/en/pyramidGraph?screenCode=00570&regionCode=00000&pyramidAreaType=2

Causes: Japan's demographic crisis is the consequence of the combination of two elements: high life expectancy and a low fertility rate.

High life expectancy: Japan's people are living longer at a rate that is unexpected by the world. Japan has the largest percentage of old people of any country on the planet. Both rural and urban sections of the country are experiencing a "super-aging" society.[8] Life expectancy for the Japanese population has increased steadily over the past few decades. In 2019 it was 87.45 years for women and 81.41 for men. In 2018, at 87.32, Japan had the world's second-highest rate after Hong Kong for life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy at birth in the EU-27 was estimated at 81.0 in 2018: 83.7 for women and 78.2 for men.[9]

Lower birthrates: Japan’s population is shrinking. For the first time since the govt started keeping track over a century ago, there have been fewer than one million births in 2016, because the country’s population fell by more than 300,000 people. "The blame has long been placed on Japan’s young people, who are defendant of not having enough sex, and on women, who, place their careers before thoughts of getting married and having a family."[10]

 Japan's birth rate could fall because young people, and especially men, have less good opportunities in the country's economy. The kind of men who won't get married and have children because they and their potential partners know they can't afford it. Despite the fact that the Japanese economy is booming and its unemployment rate is 3%, the quality of employment is not included in these calculations, according to Jeff Kingston, a professor at Temple University in Japan, about 40% of Japan's" irregular " Employment, which means that they do not work for companies in which they have a permanent job throughout their career and instead piece together temporary and part-time jobs with low salaries and no benefits."[11] Which are not providing financial confidence for the people to have children.

Less Interest and marriage and family:

A study by Japanese magazine Joshi Spa! polled more than 37,000 people about their thoughts on marriage, and found that 33.5 per cent don't see any benefit to getting married. "showing that the largest group of people who had no interest in marriage was in their 30s, with 40.5% of them saying no! to exchanging vows". "Perhaps unsurprisingly, 38% of those still in their teen's teens shrugged the idea of marriage off, while 39.1% of people in their 20’s- and 35.9% of people in their 40s were also uninterested in matrimonial bliss."[12] In a 2011 article by CNN, Japanese 20- and 30-somethings said greater interest in having a career, a lack of economic stability and ever-changing work dynamics have contributed to their weakening urge to get married.[13]

Consequences: Japan has the highest proportion of older adults in the world. "Ageing is not only an immediate personal issue but also a salient factor in crucial public policies, such as pensions, health, and long-term care."[14] The diminishing working-age population and rise within the range of older nonworking persons hinder growth in the economy and place the pension system below duress. there's a larger need to solve the labour insufficiency because the country's population ages and shrinks. People inevitably retire and leave the workforce as they grow older, and there are now insufficient young people in Japan to fill this void, owing to the country's declining fertility rate. This also means that some of Japan's major industries, such as automobiles and electronics lack the labour to maintain present levels of production. Japan's position as the world's third-largest economy may be jeopardised if it is unable to maintain current output levels.

Solutions: International migration (the influx of people from other countries) is frequently mentioned as a possible policy response to rapid population ageing and decline, it's called replacement migration. "According to the medium variant projection of the United Nations 1998 Revision, the population of Japan would reach a maximum of 127.5 million in 2005."[15] "If Japan wishes to keep the size of its population at the level attained in the year 2005, the country would need 17 million net immigrants up to the year 2050, or an average of 381,000 immigrants per year between 2005 and 2050, By 2050, the immigrants and their descendants would total 22.5 million and comprise 17.7 per cent of the total population of the country." [16] "The Japanese government is addressing demographic problems by developing policies to encourage fertility and keep more of its population, especially women and the elderly, engaged in the workforce."[17] Family-building incentives include expanded childcare options, new services for people with children, and government-sponsored dating services.[18] Some policies have focused on getting more women involved in the workplace, including longer maternity leave and legal safeguards against pregnancy discrimination. "known in Japan as matahara (????, maternity harassment)."[19] Japan need to implement more plans to engage the citizens in understanding the issue at stake, incentivizing the families and providing good work-life benefits, can encourage the people to settle down and have children.

References

[1] Japan's Population Problem[“Video”], The infographics show, uploaded 06 September 2018, Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tiqNlrUsHE&ab_channel=TheInfographicsShow

[2] RESOURCE LIBRARY | ENCYCLOPEDIC ENTRY, National Geographic, accessed on 07/09/2021, available at https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/demography/#:~:text=Encyclopedic%20Entry%20Vocabulary-,Demography%20is%20the%20statistical%20study%20of%20human%20populations.,%2C%20sociology%2C%20and%20other%20fields.

 [3] Naoko Muramatsu, PhD, Hiroko Akiyama, PhD, Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future, The Gerontologist, Volume 51, Issue 4, August 2011, Pages 425–432, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnr067

[4] "Bold steps: Japan's remedy for a rapidly aging society". The Globe and Mail. Available at https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/retire-planning/how-japan-is-coping-with-a-rapidly-aging-population/article27259703/

[5] Japan's child population hits record low after 40 years of decline, The Japan Times, accessed 08/09/2021 Available at https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/04/national/child-population-decline/

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Naoko Muramatsu, PhD, Hiroko Akiyama, PhD, Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future, The Gerontologist, Volume 51, Issue 4, August 2011, Pages 425–432, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnr067

[9] Enrico D'AMBROGIO, Japan's ageing society, Briefing, European Parliament Think Tank, accessed 07/09/2021, available at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI(2020)659419

[10] Alana Semuels, The Mystery of Why Japanese People Are Having So Few Babies, JULY 20, 2017, The atlantic, Available at https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/07/japan-mystery-low-birth-rate/534291/

[11] Ibid

[12] Preston Phro, 33% of Japanese think marriage is pointless: survey, japantoday, Available at https://japantoday.com/category/national/33-of-japanese-think-marriage-is-pointless-survey

[13] Japanese Marriage: One-Third Of Japanese Adults Don't See Any Point To Marrying, Survey Finds,

The Huffington Post, 07/02/2013 06:06pm EDT | Updated July 2, 2013, Available at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/japanese-marriage_n_3536617

 [14] Naoko Muramatsu, PhD, Hiroko Akiyama, PhD, Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future, The Gerontologist, Volume 51, Issue 4, August 2011, Pages 425–432, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnr067

[15] United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration, Japan, Available at https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/replacement-chap4-jp.pdf

[16] Ibid

[17] "Urgent Policies to Realize a Society in Which All Citizens are Dynamically Engaged" . Kantei (Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet). Available at http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/topics/2015/ichiokusoukatsuyaku/kinkyujisshitaisaku_en.pdf

[18] Young Japanese 'decline to fall in love'[“Video”], BBC NEWS, 11 January 2012, Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-16500768

[19] "Urgent Policies to Realize a Society in Which All Citizens are Dynamically Engaged" . Kantei (Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet). Available at http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/topics/2015/ichiokusoukatsuyaku/kinkyujisshitaisaku_en.pdf

Pic Courtesy-Jezael Melgoza at unsplash.com

(the views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)