Starlink and Geopolitics
Elon Musk, the tech billionaire successfully caught the world’s attention when he announced plans to send SpaceX’s space-based internet services Starlink in service of Ukraine in the aftermath of the Russian invasion in February 2022. The w...
Musk’s prompt response was “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route”. Ten months into the war, more than 22,000 Starlink terminals have been sent to Ukraine as it continues to provide internet access essential for wartime purposes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, uses the Starlink satellites to address national legislatures all around the world as well as the general public, keeping the world updated on the crucial aspects of the conflict.
What is Starlink?
Starlink is SpaceX’s space-based internet system in low earth orbit (LEO) to provide low-cost space-based internet services to the world. Launched in 2019, in less than three years Starlink has around 3,000 satellites with the most recent launch on 17 December 2022. Musk’s company SpaceX has already planned a launch of next generation Starlink satellites to address the slowing internet speed [1].
Space-based internet services use a geostationary satellite, which is above equator and appears to be stationary to people on ground. Apart from space-based internet, there are fibre optic cables and wireless networks through mobile towers that give internet connectivity in different regions of the world. Space internet is a game changer as it could cover all places on the planet and provide connectivity in remote regions of the world.
Starlink has nearly 3,300 operational satellites in orbit out of 3,612 launched overall, according to statistics from Harvard-Smithsonian astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who tracks Starlink on his website [2].
The Geopolitics of Technology
Musk’s Starlink gained major attention in the geopolitical circles after his announcement to play a role in the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Starlink’s presence over Ukraine has been a boon to the former Soviet Union’s territory. It has helped keep the communication lines open on the battlefield providing essential access to the internet for the people of Ukraine and the country’s military after Russia disrupted internet connections early on in the war. In addition to internet access, the technology has been instrumental in guiding Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian tanks and positions [3].
The technology has particularly been useful in weak infrastructural areas with poor or no internet connectivity. The military is using Starlink for diverse purposes like monitoring and coordinating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) as well as enabling soldiers to fire anti-tank weapons with targeted precision. Some analysts even doubt that Musk’s satellites might be targets for Russian troops. Early in March, Musk cautioned that Starlink was the only non-Russian communications system still working in some parts of Ukraine, underlining the probability of being targeted is high [4].
In October 2022, eight months into the war, Musk announced that SpaceX would no longer give Ukrainians free Starlink, a week after a Twitter argument with Ukrainian Ambassador Andrij Melnyk [5]. Melnyk had responded to Musk’s peace plan which included Ukraine’s acceptance of some form of permanent neutrality and recognised Russia’s annexation of four regions- Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine. There were issues with the funding of the 1,300 military satellite equipment reportedly experienced problems and went down.
According to news reports, SpaceX said in a letter to the Pentagon in September that it was unable to continue sponsoring Starlink in Ukraine since it had already spent about $100 million on the project [6]. The letter asked that more military funds for Ukraine be transferred to the Defense Department. However, the funding proposal was dropped following backlash from the public.
Shortcomings of Starlink
As useful as Starlink has been for Ukraine, it is a grim reminder that technology is complex and its role in global conflicts is a two-way street. While technology can influence democratic functions like voting systems but also increase disinformation, polarization and anti-democratic activities like surveillance. One of the downsides of internet satellites is that the reception equipment can be geolocated while in operation. Musk even warned Ukrainian officials to ‘turn on Starlink only when needed and place the antenna as far away from people as possible’, after the terminals were delivered. Russia has tried to use jammers to block internet access from space but Musk was on his feet with prompt software update that lowers power consumption and can bypass jamming transmitters.
Despite a robust mechanism to support Ukrainians during the war, a section of policymakers and analysts have flagged concerns regarding the ambitious Starlink program. One of the major concerns is the misuse by totalitarian states or private companies who could get their hands on the Earth-spanning network. With minimal government oversight, authoritarian regimes might offer Starlink incentives to halt service when its satellites pass over their nations or coercing Starlink management to agree with their requests, as pointed out by Dr. Herb Lin who is senior research scholar of cyber policy and security [7]. Another concern is generally voiced out by activists who argue that Starlink and its thousands of satellites could create crowding and lead to space debris. Scientists also fear that due to the increase in the number of satellite constellations in space, close encounters have become a real danger. According to Hugh Lewis, the head of the Astronautics Research Group at the University of Southampton, U.K., out of the total close calls, around 1,600 close calls between two spacecraft per week, which is about 50% of all such instances, involve SpaceX's Starlink satellites alone [8]. According to Lewis’ data, Starlink's competitor OneWeb is currently flying over 250 satellites, and is involved in 80 close passes with other operators' satellites every week.
Starlink’s operation is a sign of how private companies provide more than just technology but also bestow geopolitical power to those who use it. It also signals a shift in defense and world politics as commercial satellites take on more national security and military importance [9]. Musk even predicted that in the future privately operated spacecraft may target enemy forces testimony to the cyberattacks. The geopolitical element is so evident in this that Russian officials even questioned the Pentagon paying for Starlink terminals as equivalent to U.S’s involvement in the war.
References:
[1]https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellite-new-generation-launch
[2]https://planet4589.org/astro/starsim/index.html
[3]https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-is-using-elon-musks-starlink-for-drone-strikes/a-61270528
[5]https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html
[6]https://www.dw.com/en/starlink-is-crucial-to-ukrainian-defense-heres-how-it-works/a-63443808
[7]https://www.lawfareblog.com/geopolitical-ramifications-starlink-internet-service
[8]Https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellite-collision-alerts-on-the-rise
[9]https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellite-collision-alerts-on-the-rise
Pic Courtsey-NASA
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
Neha Dayma has recently completed her Masters in Politics with Specialization in International Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University. She is a political science graduate and also a current intern at Online Foreign Policy School. Her areas of interest include South- East Asia, West Asia, geopolitics, Indo- Pacific and India's foreign policy.
