Turkey after the 2023 earthquakes

Nine hours later, at about 100 kilometers from the epicenter of the magnitude 7.8 earthquake, the second significant shock, with a magnitude of 7.5, broke. The East Anatolian Fault borders the Sürgü-ardak Fault at a 30-degree angle, and the magnitude-7.5 earthquake traveled 150 kilometers overall along this fault in both directions, west, and east. Aftershocks followed both earthquakes as was to be anticipated [1].

On the official magnitude scale, the first earthquake, which occurred in the early hours of February 6, 2023, was recorded as 7.8, which is "major." Its center was close to the metropolis of Gaziantep, which has a population of over 2 million. Tower blocks and government buildings were also destroyed by the tremors' intensity in northern Syria, and the tremors were felt in Lebanon and Cyprus, both of which were about 250 miles distant from the epicenter. Numerous aftershocks, including one measuring magnitude 7.5, occurred in the nine-hour period after the initial tremor, with its epicenter being about 60 miles farther north in the Elbistan district of the Kahramanmaras province [2].

The sequence of the earthquakes:

At 01:17 UTC, the first and biggest tremor in the chain occurred. Its magnitude at that moment was determined to be Mw 7.8 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Mw 7.8 by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT), respectively. The earthquake sequence that occurred in Turkey's Kahramanmara? in 2023 is an example of complicated faulting brought on by interactions between three plates close to the Hatay Triple Junction. Although the relative plate motions in this area are low, even slow plate motion areas can still experience very destructive earthquakes [3].

At the epicenter of the earthquake, Elbistan, aftershocks continued. Rescue teams closed some roads to curb traffic out of concern that more buildings might collapse as some of them were still intact but had significant cracks in them [4]. As more assistance and rescue tools tried to access the city, traffic in that area moved slowly. As it was more likely that aid trucks would be distributing water, bread, and medicine on the sides of major roads, residents relocated to those locations. The rescue effort was further hampered by snowstorms and extreme cold, and it has come under fire for logistical issues, inadequate funding, and slow reaction times. Survivors in some areas have had to wait days for assistance, and in some instances have had to watch helplessly as the cries for assistance from trapped family members finally decreased.

Following the two strong earthquakes that shook the area, two enormous fissures in the Earth's crust appeared close to the Turkish-Syrian boundary [5].

A comparison of the pictures captured by the U.K. Center for the Observation & Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes & Tectonics (COMET) from the Earth-observing satellite Sentinel-1 in the region close to the Mediterranean Sea coast revealed the ruptures. Since the earthquakes, satellites run by both public and commercial organizations have been evaluating the damage. As per NASA, the earthquakes occurred along a fault line 18 kilometers below the surface and the shallow depth allowed the earthquakes spread to a further distance from its epicenter.

Effect of earthquakes on elections:

Erdogan's political destiny may depend on how the public views his administration's handling of this severe natural calamity [6]. Erdogan's political adversaries have already criticized the government's handling of the earthquake, claiming that he had had two decades to prepare the nation for what was bound to happen. The destruction has impacted ten provinces in the southeast of the country, making it difficult for both domestic and foreign crews to promptly carry out rescue operations. While the construction companies traditionally favored by Erdogan have made billions in savings but failed to safeguard locals from earthquakes, the Justice, and Development Party (AKP) controversially gave an amnesty for unlawful construction, which delivered a significant amount of money to government coffers [7].

President Erdogan tried to assuage the rage of the earthquake victims by promising each homeless family immediate relief worth roughly USD 530. Additionally, he made the implausible promise that the Housing Ministry will construct new dwellings for each person who lost their home due to the earthquake within a year. However, doing so would cost trillions of Turkish Lira and a project of such scale could not be finished in that period of time. Erdogan acknowledged that the emergency services' response to the earthquake victims was inadequate and promised to hold into account the people who are responsible.

In the wake of Turkey's worst calamity in modern times, sources from the ruling and opposition parties speculated that Erdogan would postpone the presidential and legislative elections citing the disaster as a reason. Experts were of the view that any changes in the date of the election due to the earthquake could change the political environment which could provide Erdogan and his opponents with both new possibilities and risks [8]. Analysts believe that they must make judicious use of this period in order to appeal to the public's outrage over the enormous scope of the destruction without coming across as seeking to exploit the tragedy for political benefit.

Humanitarian and Relief efforts:

The United Nations (UN) and its agencies are sending out specialists in disaster assessment, organizing search and rescue teams, and delivering emergency aid, food, medical supplies, thermal blankets, and other life-saving supplies [9]. UN convoys carrying provisions for shelter and relief have entered northern Syria through the Bab al-Hawa crossing.

400,000 earthquake victims have received medical provisions from the World Health Organization (WHO). The organization cautions that in order to prevent a secondary disaster that could harm even more people, health services must be quickly restored. Further, nearly 1.7 million people in the two nations are receiving food assistance from the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

According to Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, 95 countries and 16 international organizations have promised assistance to Turkey in the wake of the devastating earthquake [10]. He further added that 6,479 rescue workers from 56 different nations were engaged in humanitarian and relief efforts in the field, at a press conference in Ankara.

Turkey's Turkish Red Crescent has sent more than 5,000 employees and volunteers, along with basic medical and food supplies, to the ten affected provinces to assist the wounded and evacuated. More than 80 million hot meals have been given out by relief workers to individuals in shelters and outside. Turkish Red Crescent is urging people all over Turkey to donate blood in order to meet the country's increased blood demand [11]. Numerous National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies from around the globe have provided technical assistance. This showcases that the earthquakes sparked a huge wave of solidarity from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) network. Many of them have already provided essential relief supplies to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent and the Turkish Red Crescent. Apart from that, around 60 National Societies have gotten their domestic fund-raising efforts underway.

Aftermath and rebuilding:

Ankara and Istanbul, two of the most well-known cities in Turkey among foreign tourists, are located hundreds of kilometers distant in the west of the nation. The Aegean coast and other areas where these towns are located are accessible as usual. However, it is challenging and not advised to journey to the earthquake zones [12]. In a travel advisory, travelers were advised to "avoid the immediate vicinity" of the incident by the UK Foreign Office. The Turkish districts of Gaziantep, Hatay, Osmaniye, Adyaman, Diyarbakir, Sanliurfa, Kahramanmaras, Kilis, Adana, and Malatya are covered by this recommendation from the Foreign Office.

As an estimated 1.5 million people were rendered homeless by the devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey's border region with Syria this month, the country has intensified plans to rebuild homes for those affected [13]. The earthquakes caused more than 160,000 buildings, and 520,000 apartments, to collapse or suffer significant damage. Suleyman Soylu, Turkey's Interior Minister, claimed that another 150,000 business buildings had sustained at least moderate damage. He further added that authorities had identified 564 suspects and had made 160 official arrests in connection with an inquiry into building contractors suspected of breaking safety regulations and escalating the level of destruction.

Endnotes:

1.       “Interactions, stress changes, mysteries, and partial forecasts of the 2023 Kahramanmara?, Türkiye, earthquakes”, Temblor, 02 March 2023 https://temblor.net/temblor/insights-stress-changes-mysteries-turkey-earthquakes-2023-15070/

2.     “Turkey Earthquake 2023 – Epicentre, Magnitude, Videos, Reason and Latest News”, SSSamiti, 31 March 2023 https://www.sssamiti.org/turkey-earthquake-epicentre-magnitude-videos/

3.      “The 2023 Kahramanmara?, Turkey, Earthquake Sequence”, US Geological Survey, 27 March 2023 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/storymap/index-turkey2023.html

4.     Thomas Grove, “Aftershocks Continue to Rock Second Earthquake's Epicenter Elbistan”. The Wall Street Journal, 09 February 2023 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/turkey-syria-earthquake/card/aftershocks-continue-to-rock-second-earthquake-s-epicenter-elbistan-AK3x3YSIweVuadFfGmMs

5.     Tereza Pultarova, “Turkey earthquake opened 190-mile-long fissure, satellite images show”, Space, 10 February 2023 https://www.space.com/turkey-earthquake-satellite-images-200-mile-rupture

6.     Suzan Fraser and Zeynep Bilginsoy, “Earthquake compounds Turkish leader’s woes as election nears”, AP News, 11 February 2023 https://apnews.com/article/politics-turkey-government-recep-tayyip-erdogan-7271a2f750c3f9fadd689c44d35b4d49

7.     “Erdogan faces a major challenge as earthquake change election scene in Turkey”, Business Standard, 14 February 2023 https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/erdogan-faces-major-challenge-as-earthquake-change-election-scene-in-turkey-123021300069_1.html

8.     “Quake stalls election campaign of Turkey's splintered opposition”, France 24, 13 February 2023 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230213-quake-stalls-election-campaign-of-turkey-s-splintered-opposition

9.     “Türkiye-Syria Earthquake Response”, United Nations https://www.un.org/en/turkiye-syria-earthquake-response

10.  “February 9, 2023, Turkey-Syria earthquake news”, CNN, 10 February 2023 https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/turkey-syria-earthquake-updates-2-9-23-intl/h_2700d06892d3c9707c61820e6d21ab22

11.    “Türkiye and Syria earthquakes: IFRC response to date”, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 09 February 2023 https://www.ifrc.org/article/turkiye-and-syria-earthquakes-ifrc-response-date

12.   Charlotte Elton, “Travel warnings: Everything tourists need to know about the Turkey and Syria earthquakes”, Euronews, 01 March 2023 https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/02/07/turkey-earthquakes-travel-warnings-appeals-and-what-tourists-need-to-know

13.   “Turkey begins rebuilding for millions left homeless after quakes”, i24 News, 2 February 2023 https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/levant-turkey/1677265208-turkey-begins-rebuilding-for-millions-left-homeless-after-quakes

Pic Courtsey-Adli Wahid at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)